Why Mitt Lost-A View From The Trenches

by tom Whitmore at TPN – links and comments in italics added by AskMarion:

Some will say Mitt was not conservative enough, others will say his statement that he was “Extremely conservative” was a kiss of death and there are various and sundry claims in between. One fact remains, this year with exception of a few conservative challengers most notably Ted Cruz in Texas, conservatives did not do well in the challenge races. Richard Mourdock, Tommy Thompson and Todd Akin are examples. There is more to winning than simply being a conservative.

There is also the crowd that says the problem was in the messaging. Of course many of these folks are in the messaging business, biased opinions anyone? Sure Mitt could have explained some of his ideas and plans better; but then the President hasn’t explained anything except for all of the things the GOP would take from everybody.

So what really happened? It was a tactical failure of the party not so much a messaging or degree of conservatism failure.

Many Libertarians and Ron Paul supporters skewed the vote as they said they would. They were very active across the nation in local party, congressional district committee and state party committee elections securing many positions in the Quadrennial year reconstitution of party officers and delegate seats to the state and national conventions. This should have been evident as it was happening and the magnitude of severity recognized especially after experiences at state and local conventions and at the RNC convention in August.

It is a necessity to vote for delegates to state and national conventions in the Quadrennial year, but to elect new party leadership just months before the Presidential cycle elections as is the case with many states like Virginia; is itself an invitation to disaster. At very least an invitation to disruption as the Ron Paul supporters provided at the National Convention. In Virginia for example, AG Ken Cuccinelli had a slate of preferred candidates for the Republican Party of Virginia State Central Committee and delegates to the RNC Convention that leaned heavily toward Libertarians and Ron Paul supporters. That slate did remarkably well in the District convention elections, but then many of them went on to provide great embarrassment to the Republican Party at the national convention, with the help of other Libertarian and Paul supporters from other states.

RNC & State Victory programs ran top down programs and ignored the needs of grassroots activists as they have in the past few elections. Collateral materials were refused them for efforts outside of the Victory program, even for 20-30 year party stalwarts. Collateral materials were late or in short supply even for the Victory program. Again as in 2008 there was mass confusion between presidential campaign staff, RNC staff and state party staffs in determining who had what responsibilities. Some of the short supply and logistical confusion was a result of the short 2 month campaign period due to a late August RNC Convention.

Obama started actively campaigning in the streets in January, giving him effectively an 8 month head start. The RNC has done conventions as early as July, why not in this all important year buy as much time for a concerted effort as possible?

The GOP did not go toe to toe with the Obama grassroots machine by ignoring Texting and largely not using other Social media effectively. Again Obama humbled the GOP with his use of the text and the tweet.

In addition Romney and the GOP ignored the largest and a fast growing voter block in America, the Hispanic vote. This is a community that shares the values and principles of the GOP right down the line, yet a large majority vote Democrat, because there has been no effective outreach to them. The GOP’s efforts this year amounted to little more than window dressing.

I think the RNC, Romney campaign, many state and local committees and many Congressional campaigns believed Obama was so bad he couldn’t possibly win reelection. Even Mitt admitted that he had only prepared a victory speech! As a result they did not put as much effort into the election as was required. Couple this with the rejection of any grassroots efforts that ran outside of the Victory operation and you had an inevitable disaster.

Obama’s folks knew that he looked bad, so they went to work in earnest as early as January while our nominating process was still going on, not to mention how brutal the GOP primary fight was. And Team Obama was smart, working under the radar and using paid help to knock doors and phone bank. Voter registration and outreach into the Hispanic community were top priorities. There were many allegations of voter fraud but they probably won’t amount to enough to change the outcome, at least not of the presidential election… but we need to pursue each and every allocation just in case the ever growing reports really are more massive than expected', plus there could be downline elections affected positively by those recounts, like Allen West in Florida.  And just like with the grassroots secession movements presently going on; both remind the White House and others that the American people are paying attention.

There you have it; there is no magic bullet to fix the problem facing the GOP. They have to realize they must work harder and smarter, not take their base for granted and always be wary of the Libertarians; too many of them have recently shown they are only in it to support their candidates and endorsees or to otherwise skew things for the GOP. And for heaven’s sake do not ignore the Latino vote!

Execution, tactics and logistics were key determinants in the loss. Messaging and candidates records played a lesser role. Obama’s win was proof of that, if the electorate was paying attention to the message or the candidates records, no way could Obama win reelection. The dumbing down of our population and the manipulation of the news by the left leaning media are certainly two large components in that arena.

Most voters are predisposed to vote one way or the other. Certainly there are some independent swing voters that need cajoling and will respond to a strong articulate message, but the winning game changer is who can do the best job to energize, pump up and rally their base to go to the polls on E-day. 3-million less conservatives turned out to vote for Mitt Romney than they did for John McCain, enough to have made the difference, and Sarah Palin could certainly have been responsible for the enthusiasm of those 3-million turning out! Pundit, Pollster and former Bill Clinton Advisor Dick Morris says the real reason Romney didn’t win is that the whites who supported Romney didn't turn out to vote.  If that is the case, we can only shake our heads!!

If the GOP wants to win in the future they are going to have to adjust their tactical plan and learn to listen to and support the GOP grassroots activists, after all they are the feet in the street, the voice on the phones and the keys to voter turnout.

Success is not measured by numbers of attempted contacts it is measured by the votes on Election Day that resulted from live in person contacts.

To ignore the grassroots and the base is to accept defeat.

Bobby Jindal, who is set to become chairman of the Republican Governors Association, has called on the party to reshape its tone when presenting ideas, especially to constituencies that traditionally vote Democratic. “We already have one liberal party”, he said,  “We don’t need another one.  We need to change the delivery or our message and outreach!”

Related:

Romney Did Not Lose

The New, And Worse, Watergate 

Amnesty won’t magically make Hispanics more Republican

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Letting Sarah Speak – Updated

Marion Algier – Ask Marion

It was just four years ago that John McCain surprised the electorate with his selection of then Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, the first woman ever to be selected as a Republican VP nomination or part of the GOP ticket and only the second woman in all of U.S. history chosen to run for the #2 position in either party; Democrat Geraldine Ferraro, was the first woman on a presidential ticket in 1984.

The 2008 GOP Convention was the first time most Americans were introduced to Sarah Palin and she rocked the house the night of her convention speech and quickly changed the face of the McCain campaign. Palin soon overshadowed McCain on the campaign trail and within days the McCain/Palin ticket had surged into the lead. And for those who either don’t or choose not to remember that they were ahead in the polls after Palin joined the ticket, Greta Van Susteren just recently pulled out those old polls.

Palin took the 2008 presidential race by storm beginning with her speech accepting the GOP vice-presidential nomination in St. Paul, Minnesota with a performance that electrified the party faithful and received almost universal praise from previously skeptical pundits as well, a fact the has been conveniently forgotten or spun over the past four years.  Many people fell in love with Sarah Palin instantly after hearing her speak that first time and she rallied the party like she does every time she speaks and instantly became a tea party favorite, excited at the prospect of a fresh, inspiring, Reaganesque candidate that was a female to boot.

Tens of thousands regularly turned out for Palin’s 2008 appearances. It was at her first rally in Cali in October 2008 that this writer first saw Sarah Palin speak to a crowd of 23,000 in Carson, CA. I have been a supporter ever since and so are most who hear her speak live and actually listen!

So why isn’t Sarah Palin speaking at the 2012 Republican Convention on Tampa?

Why aren’t any of these people speaking? UPDATE (Aug. 17): It appears that Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich will now be speaking at the GOP Convention; announced since the so-called final speakers list was released after which the poster and campaign below were launched.

Why?

After realizing Sarah Palin’s popularity with the grassroots elements of the Republican party and with average everyday Americans from all parties in 2008 and since, even after their attempts to demonize her, plus Sarah’s overall charisma, it scared the left as well as many within the Republican establishment who quickly developed a case of the phenomenon known as Palin Derangement Syndrome which was promoted by the those who suffer from it and those they control like the leftist mainstream media. ‘They’ were and are afraid that Sarah will speak her mind (Going Rogue), are afraid that they can’t control her and even more are afraid that she could win as the #1 spot on the GOP ticket or perhaps even on an independent ticket in the future. Nobody puts this much effort into someone that has no power or couldn’t upset their apple cart!

Plus, it seems fairly obvious that the RNC and the Romney-Ryan campaign’s strategy is to highlight voices that will excite party loyalists in the campaign hall while excluding those that could possibly turn-off independent voters watching on television at home, possibly giving some credence to the rumor that Palin was asked to speak during the day… when fewer people would see her. (As Rush Limbaugh has often said, “Wow what power we have given the independents!”)  That is a strategy that could backfire!  Everyone of the people in the photo above should be speaking at the Convention and Sarah Palin should definitely be speaking and speaking in prime time!

Kevin Fobbs has started a campaign to: Let Sarah Speak and the Tea Party launched a campaign to let Allen West, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Donald Trump and Sarah Palin to speak.  Join them.  Call and email the RNC, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus who had said earlier that he hoped Sarah would have a speaking role, and the Romney Campaign. Also, sign this petition or start your own.

It is not too late to change things or add speakers.  On August 17th the word was that Ron Paul and his delegates had been embraced by the RNC and it appears that both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul will now be speaking (or were given the invite) at the GOP Convention; still no specifics available on Ron Paul though. On the 21st the RNC struck a deal with Ron Paul delegates and  Sher Valenzuela (Who… When you could have Palin or Bachmann?) landed a prime speaking slot.  And on the 22nd it was announced that  Ann Romney will Keynote the First Night of the GOP convention.  Also, Donald Trump Is Now To Play a 'Surprise' Role At Republican Convention. So there is still time and room for Sarah Palin and the others listed above!

This is not in anyway an anti-Romney-Ryan movement!  They are the comeback team that America needs right now.  But the GOP needs to create a bigger tent!

Update on Maggie’s Notebook (08.22.12):

Snippet:

Mark Levin interviewed RNC chairman Reince Priebus and asked if Sarah Palin was offered a speaking position, in prime time, at the Republican National Convention beginning next week in Tampa, Florida. Priebus says (snippet): (see video below)

PRIEBUS: Governor Palin was definitely invited to speak at the Convention, and it wasn’t like in the afternoon or anything like that. She was invited to speak one of the evenings. I don’t know if it got to the point of what time and date, and which particular period of time, but she was invited to speak and it just turned out that in her schedule, I think she was planning on staying up in Alaska anyway, and it didn’t work out….

LEVINE: But a prime time spot?

PRIEBUS: I don’t what you mean by prime time, but I can tell you between 8pm and…

LEVINE: You know, when everyone is watching TV

PRIEBUS: Yeah, between 8pm and 11 at night, I think that’s a prime time spot. Yeah. It wasn’t at 7 o’clock or 4 in the afternoon. I can promise you that. It was a time when all the delegates would be in the hall and everyone would be there attentive and ready for the evening of major speakers. Yeah.

Something here doesn’t pass the smell test. I can’t imagine that Sarah would rather be in Alaska during the time of the Republican National Convention, if she had an opportunity to further her small government, integrity-driven government agenda. In fact, I can’t imagine she would not want be at the Convention, but I don’t think a 10pm or 11 pm speaking slot can be considered desirable or an appropriate offer, if that was the offer.

##

As highlighted by Ask Marion and by Constitution Daily Palin has rented a hotel space in Tampa during the Convention time, so maybe she is not staying in Alaska. I can’t imagine that she will, but then I can’t imagine that she wasn’t offered one of the best spots on RNC speaking roster.

Stay tuned…

Related:

Palin Not Speaking at GOP Convention in Tampa… Huge Disappointment to Many – Mistake or Smart by Romney Campaign?

Palin Derangement Syndrome Continues

Romney-Ryan: America’s New Dream Team and a Clear Choice

Vice President Joe Biden will be in Tampa as the GOP Convention Opens, another sign of how desperate the Obama campaign is. It has always been tradition that the opposite party stay out of the limelight while the other party has their convention.  I guess this move leaves it wide open for the Romney and Ryan to campaign during the Dem’s Convention.  Greg Gutfeld of The Five commented that perhaps the Dems are sending Biden to the GOP Convention on purpose and telling him that it is theirs, hoping he will think he has already attended the DNC Convention and misses it thereby cutting the chance of more Biden gaffes.

The Blaze: Three Notable Snubs From the GOP Convention

FOX News announces GOP convention coverage schedule

Official website of the 2012 Republican National Convention

One GOP Convention Session to be Themed “We Built That”

This article/campaign is absolutely not an anti-Romney-Ryan piece… They are the right team for the times, certainly compared to the alternative, but they would be helping themselves and the party in letting Sarah Palin speak!

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Ron Paul ends his hunt for votes

Photo by: Robert F. Bukaty - **FILE** Republican presidential candidate and Texas Rep. Ron Paul speaks Feb. 11, 2012, to his supporters following his loss in the Maine caucus to Mitt Romney, in Portland, Maine. (Associated Press)

By Stephen Dinan  -  The Washington Times

Rep. Ron Paul said Monday he will not compete in Republican primaries in any of the states that have not yet voted — essentially ending the 2012 primary season and leaving the path open for Mitt Romney to win the GOP presidential nomination.

Mr. Paul said he will still try to win over delegates in states where the voting is done but where state conventions are still picking representatives to the Republican nominating convention in Tampa, Fla., in August. But the Texas congressman and three-time presidential hopeful said he’s done actively trying to win over voters themselves in the 11 primaries still ahead.

“Moving forward, however, we will no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted,” Mr. Paul said in a statement from his campaign. “Doing so with any hope of success would take many tens of millions of dollars we simply do not have.”

That move leaves Mr. Romney as the only man actively seeking the Republican nomination, having outlasted a half-dozen opponents over the last four months of voting. The former Massachusetts governor is still shy of the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, but is expected to easily collect those in upcoming votes in Texas, California and nine other states still to hold primaries.

Mr. Romney’s campaign did not return a message seeking comment, but the push to win over Paul supporters is already under way in other circles. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary E. Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s nominee, said he’ll pick up Mr. Paul’s torch heading into the election.

“You can’t suspend liberty,” said Mr. Johnson, who had initially tried to win the Republican nomination before dropping out to join the Libertarians. “The Ron Paul revolution must continue, whether he is actively campaigning or not. His message must be a part of the conversation leading to November.”

Mr. Paul is retiring at the end of this term in the House. But he has already bequeathed his political movement to his son, freshman Sen. Rand Paul, who rode voter dissatisfaction to victory in a Republican primary and then in the general election in Kentucky in 2010.

The 2012 campaign marked Mr. Paul’s third run for the White House, following a 1988 campaign as the Libertarian Party’s nominee and then his 2008 bid for the Republican nomination.

That unorthodox 2008 campaign rewrote the manual on Internet fundraising and attracted Americans who had been alienated by much of the political process but were attracted to Mr. Paul’s message of limited government bound more strictly to original constitutional intent.

His rallies attracted supporters dressed as Colonial soldiers, and “Don’t tread on me” flags became staples of his appearances, well before they would become a part of the anti-Washington tea party movement in the 2010 elections.

“Ron Paul presaged the tea party movement, and many of his supporters fueled the tea party and its 2010 victories, not least that of his own son. That is one major impact. Another is Paul’s ability to attract young people, a feat few in the GOP have been able to duplicate in recent years,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry J. Sabato.

Still, Mr. Sabato said, Mr. Paul’s stances on foreign policy and on drug legalization were unacceptable to too many Republican voters for him to have gone further within the party.

Mr. Paul briefly surged late last year, topping the polls in Iowa ahead of that state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses. His third-place showing also seemed to leave him poised to make a run.

But that never materialized.

He ends his active campaigning without having won the popular vote in any state — though he did end up with the most bound delegates in Maine, thanks to his delegate-maximizing strategy.

According to the latest tally by the Associated Press, Mr. Romney has 966 delegates of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination. Mr. Paul has 104 delegates.

More than 700 delegates are still available across the 11 states still to hold primaries, and Mr. Romney is now virtually assured of collecting the bulk of them and clinching the nomination.

Throughout the campaign, Mr. Paul has said his lower vote totals would be countered by his supporters’ enthusiasm, particularly in states that hold caucuses.

In many of those states, the initial caucuses amounted to nonbinding straw polls, with the real delegate-selection process for the Tampa convention happening at regional and state meetings. Mr. Paul’s supporters have been more likely to show up at those meetings and win the delegate slots.

Now Mr. Paul will rely on trying to maximize delegates at the few states that have yet to choose their final delegates to the national convention, such as Washington and Missouri. He can also try to win over support of delegates who were bound to Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum — two former candidates who have suspended their campaigns.

“Our campaign will continue to work in the state convention process. We will continue to take leadership positions, win delegates, and carry a strong message to the Republican National Convention that liberty is the way of the future,” Mr. Paul said.

Many of Mr. Paul’s supporters argue he can still win the nomination, pointing to his success in having his supporters elected as delegates to the convention.

But most of those delegates are actually bound by the results of the primaries and conventions to vote for another candidate in the first round of voting. Most delegates’ personal views won’t come into play unless no candidate wins on the first ballot.

Related:

Ron Paul Supporters Boo Romney Son Off Stage at Arizona GOP Convention

Via con Dios Ron Paul

Ron Paul stuns Arizona with upset win!

Paul aide: Don’t look for a Romney endorsement  - We shall see!?!

Technorati Tags: Ron Paul,GOP,GOP candidates,2012 Election,Election 2012,elections,Mitt Romney,Mitt Romney 2012,Florida,Texas.

2012 Election Game On: Class vs. Crass… Hope vs. Nope

Video: The Tail of Two Leaders

Mac Lewis: The logic of the ad in one line: “If voters think on election day that Obama is the cool one, but Romney is the competent one, Obama will lose.”

Matt Lewis wrote Wednesday morning that Obama vs. Romney is starting to look a bit like a “Mac vs. PC” commercial. Here’s the RNC kinda sorta embracing that framework to make the point that what America has with The One is the policy equivalent of a Sad Mac.

Lewis:

Republicans, of course, will claim the contrast favors them — that Tuesday night demonstrated a serious candidate talking about serious issues — versus someone “slow-jamming” with a comedian (while the economy crumbles).

But it also reminds me that the Obama vs. Romney clash creates a PR/optics problem for Republicans: Policy aside, Obama seems cool — while Romney seems more like The Man. (This might not matter, however. Voters might decide they personally like Obama, but that they want a technocrat to fix the economy. Sometimes we need The Man!)

Brand images, though, often outlast political campaigns. And from a purely superficial standpoint, the GOP — especially if Romney makes a milquetoast running mate pick — risks reinforcing its image as your father’s party.  So the GOP V.P. pick could be a factor this election and if not for this election, it might reinforce a brand for the next time?!?

With a couple of events and a couple of speeches the 2012 Election focus was set and the race is on, all in one day.

While President Obama appeared on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon for some slow ‘jammon’ that ended up looking and sounding anything but presidential except to the (MSM) media Obamabots, Mitt Romney took the stage in New Hampshire and claimed his position as the presumptive GOP nominee after winning 5-primaries on Tuesday. That one move showed leadership and has changed the conversation.  Within 24-hours Gingrich announced that he was leaving the race, former GOP primary candidate endorsed Romney and the RNC announced that Mitt Romney was now their presumptive nominee unveiling their support and the support of many behind the scenes already working together to defeat Barack Obama, including with the Ron Paul Campaign though Paul has no plans of dropping out of the race..

Romney looked and sounded presidential creating an echo over the blogosphere and even among some mainstream media outlets that a presidential Romney made slow jammom Obama look anything but presidential.

Mitt Romney Kicked-Off His Presidential Campaign with the words “A better America begins tonight”.  Romney hit all right notes, said all the right things and sounded believably concerned.

Transcript of Romney’s “A Better America” Speech:

"Thank you Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York! And tonight I can say thank you, America. After 43 primaries and caucuses, many long days and more than a few long nights, I can say with confidence – and gratitude – that you have given me a great honor and solemn responsibility. And, together, we will win on November 6th!

We launched this campaign not far from here on a beautiful June day. It has been an extraordinarily journey.

Americans have always been eternal optimists. But over the last three and a half years, we have seen hopes and dreams diminished by false promises and weak leadership. Everywhere I go, Americans are tired of being tired, and many of those who are fortunate enough to have a job are working harder for less.

For every single mom who feels heartbroken when she has to explain to her kids that she needs to take a second job … for grandparents who can’t afford the gas to visit their grandchildren … for the mom and dad who never thought they’d be on food stamps … for the small business owner desperately cutting back just to keep the doors open one more month – to all of the thousands of good and decent Americans I’ve met who want nothing more than a better chance, a fighting chance, to all of you, I have a simple message: Hold on a little longer. A better America begins tonight.

Tonight is the start of a new campaign to unite every American who knows in their heart that we can do better! The last few years have been the best that Barack Obama can do, but it’s not the best America can do!

Tonight is the beginning of the end of the disappointments of the Obama years and the start of a new and better chapter that we will write together.

This has already been a long campaign, but many Americans are just now beginning to focus on the choice before the country. In the days ahead, I look forward to spending time with many of you personally. I want to hear what’s on your mind, hear about your concerns, and learn about your families. I want to know what you think we can do to make this country better…and what you expect from your next President.

And I’ll tell you a little bit about myself. I’ll probably start out talking about my wonderful wife Ann – I usually do – and I’ll probably bore you with stories about our kids and grandkids. I’ll tell you about how much I love this country, where someone like my dad, who grew up poor and never graduated from college, could pursue his dreams and work his way up to running a great car company. Only in America could a man like my dad become governor of the state in which he once sold paint from the trunk of his car.

I’d say that you might have heard that I was successful in business. And that rumor is true. But you might not have heard that I became successful by helping start a business that grew from 10 people to hundreds of people. You might not have heard that our business helped start other businesses, like Staples and Sports Authority and a new steel mill and a learning center called Bright Horizons. And I’d tell you that not every business made it and there were good days and bad days, but every day was a lesson. And after 25 years, I know how to lead us out of this stagnant Obama economy and into a job-creating recovery!

Four years ago Barack Obama dazzled us in front of Greek columns with sweeping promises of hope and change. But after we came down to earth, after the celebration and parades, what do we have to show for three and a half years of President Obama?

Is it easier to make ends meet? Is it easier to sell your home or buy a new one? Have you saved what you needed for retirement? Are you making more in your job? Do you have a better chance to get a better job? Do you pay less at the pump?

If the answer were “yes” to those questions, then President Obama would be running for re-election based on his achievements…and rightly so. But because he has failed, he will run a campaign of diversions, distractions, and distortions. That kind of campaign may have worked at another place and in a different time. But not here and not now. It’s still about the economy …and we’re not stupid.

People are hurting in America. And we know that something is wrong, terribly wrong with the direction of the country.

We know that this election is about the kind of America we will live in and the kind of America we will leave to future generations. When it comes to the character of America, President Obama and I have very different visions.

Government is at the center of his vision. It dispenses the benefits, borrows what it cannot take, and consumes a greater and greater share of the economy. With Obamacare fully installed, government will come to control half the economy, and we will have effectively ceased to be a free enterprise society.

This President is putting us on a path where our lives will be ruled by bureaucrats and boards, commissions and czars. He’s asking us to accept that Washington knows best – and can provide all.

We’ve already seen where this path leads. It erodes freedom. It deadens the entrepreneurial spirit. And it hurts the very people it’s supposed to help. Those who promise to spread the wealth around only ever succeed in spreading poverty. Other nations have chosen that path. It leads to chronic high unemployment, crushing debt, and stagnant wages.

I have a very different vision for America, and of our future. It is an America driven by freedom, where free people, pursuing happiness in their own unique ways, create free enterprises that employ more and more Americans. Because there are so many enterprises that are succeeding, the competition for hard-working, educated and skilled employees is intense, and so wages and salaries rise.

I see an America with a growing middle class, with rising standards of living. I see children even more successful than their parents - some successful even beyond their wildest dreams – and others congratulating them for their achievement, not attacking them for it.

This America is fundamentally fair. We will stop the unfairness of urban children being denied access to the good schools of their choice; we will stop the unfairness of politicians giving taxpayer money to their friends’ businesses; we will stop the unfairness of requiring union workers to contribute to politicians not of their choosing; we will stop the unfairness of government workers getting better pay and benefits than the taxpayers they serve; and we will stop the unfairness of one generation passing larger and larger debts on to the next.

In the America I see, character and choices matter. And education, hard work, and living within our means are valued and rewarded. And poverty will be defeated, not with a government check, but with respect and achievement that is taught by parents, learned in school, and practiced in the workplace.

This is the America that was won for us by the nation’s Founders, and earned for us by the Greatest Generation. It is the America that has produced the most innovative, most productive, and the most powerful economy in the world.

As I look around at the millions of Americans without work, the graduates who can't get a job, the soldiers who return home to an unemployment line, it breaks my heart. This does not have to be. It is the result of failed leadership and of a faulty vision. We will restore the promise of America only if we restore the principles of freedom and opportunity that made America the greatest nation on earth.

Today, the hill before us is a little steep but we have always been a nation of big steppers. Many Americans have given up on this President but they haven’t ever thought about giving up. Not on themselves. Not on each other. And not on America.

In the days ahead, join me in the next step toward that destination of November 6th, when across America we can give a sigh of relief and know that the Promise of America has been kept. The dreamers can dream a little bigger, the help wanted signs can be dusted off, and we can start again.

And this time we’ll get it right. We’ll stop the days of apologizing for success at home and never again apologize for America abroad.

There was a time – not so long ago – when each of us could walk a little taller and stand a little straighter because we had a gift that no one else in the world shared. We were Americans. That meant something different to each of us but it meant something special to all of us. We knew it without question. And so did the world.

Those days are coming back. That’s our destiny.

We believe in America. We believe in ourselves. Our greatest days are still ahead. We are, after all, Americans!

God bless you, and God bless the United States of America."

To quote Jedediah Bila, “With this one speech, Romney changed the discussion from class warfare to a discussion of hope and choice.”

SuperPac American Crossroads also produced a new video entitled: “Cool” - After four years of a celebrity president, is your life any better?  It is focused toward the young…

Meanwhile Obama looked foolish and inept appearing in one of the worst skits ever, demeaning his position and the office of presidency after having spent taxpayer money to campaign and to promote his new student loan program into an election issue.  But the problem with that is Obama’s record and that Romney agrees with Obama on helping students with their loan debt while the economy keeps them from getting jobs, making it a non-issue.

Under Obama:

• 1 in 2 recent college grads are jobless or underemployed
• 85% of recent college grads are moving back with their parents
• Student loan debt exceeds 1 Trillion Dollars

Breibart.com:

And now it seems that Obama’s Fallon appearance violated campaign law

Last night, President Obama appeared on Jimmy Fallon’s unwatchable show to “slow-jam the news.” By this, Fallon meant that Obama would read a campaign speech about student loans, Fallon would utter a few lines to back him up every so often, and his lead band singer would warble in support of Obama’s propaganda.

Only one problem, aside from the fact that this was possibly the worst “comedy” segment in the history of mankind: it violated campaign finance law.

The equal time rule states that if a licensee permits a person “who is a legally qualified candidate for any public office to use a broadcasting station, he shall afford equal opportunities to all other such candidates for that office in the use of such broadcasting station.”

There are exceptions to the rule: appearances on (1) a bona fide newscast, (2) a bona fide news interview, (3) a bona fide news documentary, or (4) on-the-spot coverage of bona fide news events.

Only the second provision could be construed as saving NBC from giving Mitt Romney equal time. But this was not a bona fide news interview. In fact, it wasn’t an interview at all – no questions were asked, no answers were given. It was literally Obama reading a campaign speech over a guitar, a horn, a keyboard, and some drums.

Not only was this appearance in violation of equal time law, it was clearly an in-kind contribution by NBC to the Obama campaign. As the Federal Elections Commission states, “A donation of services is … considered an in-kind contribution.” Under applicable law, contribution of broadcast time is considered such a service. This was a campaign commercial for Obama, and the Obama campaign was not charged for it. A minute of network time can cost up to a couple million dollars; this segment ran a full five minutes. There is no doubt that Obama was given millions of dollars of free advertising time, and the Romney campaign should invoke all available law to make that clear.

NBC should be punished to the fullest extent of the law (because they are a repeating offender). Mitt Romney should be given equal time, and an equally sycophantic propaganda piece by Fallon. Obama should be ashamed of himself (though, of course, he has no capacity for shame).   Video HERE

Speaker of the House John Boehner also weighed in this week on Obama campaigning on the public dime.  Boehner said Obama misuses Air Force One for political trips and that he is now trying to make a political issue out of student loans, hitting swing states to make speeches without having to cover the cost for campaigning.  Using taxpayer dollars to fly to battleground states to make political points is 'pathetic, said Boehner.  Read more Here.

Of course violating campaign laws, ethics or tradition doesn’t seem to matter to Team Obama.  He has been campaigning and appearing at fundraisers on the taxpayer dime for months.  Yet, they had the audacity to announce this week that President Obama would be beginning his official campaign in about a month.  At some point the American people are going to get tired of being played for fools on top of watching their country being spent into bankruptcy.  As Mitt Romney said the other night, “It is still about the economy and we’re not stupid”

By Ask Marion~

Mitt Romney Kicked-Off His Presidential Campaign

Although he isn't yet the official nominee, Mitt Romney kicked off his presidential campaign in earnest today, effectively accepting the Republican nomination for president this evening after easily winning all five GOP primary contests over Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul as he said, “A better America begins tonight”.

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Romney looked like a new man… a man to beat, not a man catching-up with an incumbent. “It is still about the economy and we’re not stupid” Romney said with the sound and look of a solid presidential candidate to the cheers from visibly encouraged supporters.  Ann Romney did the introductions for her husband, as has become customary before his speeches and she also looked confident as she shared how grateful she was for the support and prayers of so many she has heard from.  She also looked ready for the journey; and looking and sounding like someone who loves and is proud of America instead of someone, like Michelle Obama, who stated in the 2008 campaign the election of her husband was the first time in her life that she was proud of America.

Romney added that “tonight is the beginning of the end of the disappointments of the Obama years” .  He urged everyone to hang on just a little longer… until he was elected.

After sweeping all five primaries tonight and no longer having a serious opponent after Santorum dropped out, Romney’s shift to focus on the general election makes sense.  Since Santorum exited the contest earlier this month, Romney has assumed the mantle of presumptive GOP nominee. Santorum’s endorsement is considered imminent by most.

Rep. Ron Paul (TX) will hang in to the end.  He is $2 million in the black and continuing to collect delegates.  Former Speaker Gingrich (GA) is barely hanging on with a near $5 million debt looking for a way to make a graceful exit and still try to have some input at the GOP convention.  The former Massachusetts governor made clear in his address this evening that he is embracing victory, even if some of his opponents refuse to concede defeat.

From the sound of Romney’s speech tonight he intends to run a campaign on real hope and change and focus on the positives of his vision and experience for America and the negative details of Obama’s abysmal record, while Team Obama has already shown their hand and plan to run a negative campaign using Alinsky-style mud-slinging since President Obama can’t run on his record or his former slogan of hope and change.

Tonight’s speech and shift to the general election was expected when earlier this week Mitt Romney began to pivot to swing voters -- ever so slightly as he campaigned with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at stops like Mustang Expediting on April 23, 2012 in Aston, Pennsylvania, where he said he was open to “studying” Marco Rubio’s DREAM Act alternative as an option. But, he has endorsed Paul Ryans’s budget plan and is reaching out to the tea party as well as American’s of all affiliations and walks of life for their input.

Jessica Kourkounis / Getty Images

Romney also sharpened his attack on Obama saying the past few years were the best Obama can do but not the best America can do. A line Juan Williams seized on during the after-speech quarterbacking on Fox News.

Here are some highlight from Romney’s ‘A Better America’ Speech:

The address included the unveiling for a number of themes likely to re-emerge throughout the campaign against Obama. Romney attempted to turn the president’s “fairness” message against him, arguing that the commander in chief’s dismal record has led to a condition of “unfairness” for millions of Americans.

Among the more memorable lines from Romney’s speech were “A better America begins tonight” and “It’s still about the economy, and we’re not stupid.” as mentioned above.

The Obama campaign  quickly responded with a statement charging that Romney wants to return the country “to the same policies that got us into the economic crisis in the first place.”

“Tonight is the start of a new campaign to unite every American who knows in their heart that we can do better,” Romney said. “The last few years have been the best that Barack Obama can do, but it’s not the best America can do. Tonight is the beginning of the end of the disappointments of the Obama years and the start of a new and better chapter that we will write together.”

“In the days ahead, I look forward to spending time with many of you personally,” Romney continued. “I want to hear what’s on your mind, hear about your concerns and learn about your families. I want to know what you think we can do to make this country better and what you expect from your next president. And I’ll tell you a little bit about myself. I’ll probably start out talking about my wonderful wife, Ann — I usually do — and I’ll probably bore you with stories about our kids and grandkids.”

The Obama campaign, meanwhile, moved to their favorite trick in an attempt to tie Romney to President George W. Bush and charged Romney with misrepresenting the president’s record.

“The title for Gov. Romney’s speech tonight should have been ‘Back to the Future,’ because he has proposed a return to the same policies that got us into the economic crisis in the first place,” Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said. “We have tried those policies before. They didn’t unleash growth, they didn’t spur job creation and they didn’t boost the middle class. And while Mitt Romney praised those policies in 2004, they led to a recovery that produced seven times fewer private sector jobs than the president’s policies, despite a significantly milder recession compared to the one the president faced coming into office.”

I’ll get a transcript of the speech up when I find it; it’s not yet up on Mitt Romney’s campaign site.

We now have the candidates for the 2012 Election and we have a clear choice of candidates and for America’s future.  This election will be a choice between two candidates, two records and two visions for our country!

Santorum Suspends Campaign… Romney Clear To Be GOP Standard Bearer… Game on for General

After 3-year old daughter Bella’s illness Santorum suspends campaign for his daughter's health and family.

Rick Santorum, the only real possible challenge to Romney, suspended his campaign just minutes ago after a 309-day campaign.

Stephanie Strasburg for The New York Times

Rick Santorum has suspended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, bowing to the inevitability of Mitt Romney’s nomination and ending his improbable, come-from-behind quest to become the party’s conservative standard-bearer in the fall.

"We made the decision over the weekend that while this presidential race for us is over for me and we will suspend our campaign effective today, we are not done fighting," Santorum said during a speech in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. "We will continue to fight for those voices for those Americans who stood up and gave us that air under our wings."

Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, said the past weekend was a "time of prayer and thought" as he and his family cared for his daughter Isabella.

Santorum's organization announced they were halting campaign events on Friday because the candidate's three-year-old daughter Bella was admitted to the hospital. Bella, the youngest of Santorum's seven children, suffers from a rare chromosomal disorder called Trisomy 18, which causes severe medical and developmental problems.

Before the official suspension, Santorum held a conference call with his wife, Karen, campaign manager and staff, according to a source. He said the decision was based on personal and political factors, according to a Santorum source.

He also spoke with Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney, according to a GOP source.

Newt Gingrich was not given a heads-up before Santorum’s speech.  He immediately jumped in after Santorum’s speech to say he was not dropping out, but he had already appeared on TV the past few days saying he knew he could not win and was just in to be part of the platform decision making process.

(CNN) – Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney released a statement shortly after opponent Rick Santorum announced a suspension to his campaign on Tuesday, praising Santorum for his presidential bid.

"Senator Santorum is an able and worthy competitor, and I congratulate him on the campaign he ran. He has proven himself to be an important voice in our party and in the nation. We both recognize that what is most important is putting the failures of the last three years behind us and setting America back on the path to prosperity," Romney said in the statement.

It is now time for the party to heal and come together.  Time to change focus… game on for the general!!  Time to focus on beating Obama and turning our country around.

Final GOP Debate Before Super Tuesday and 3 Other Primaries - Updated

The CNN Arizona Debate is over and so are the GOP debates until after Super Tuesday, after about 14-additional primaries are over.

As with all of the debates, there were winners and losers. Who won, who lost and what’s next?

Debate Video: Republican Presidential Debate (CNN/Arizona Republican Party) - February 22 2012

Video: Highlights From CNN GOP Debate in Arizona

Debate Transcript

First the winners.

Whether Mitt or Newt won depends on who you listen to.

Gingrich was in top form tonight and was able to hold the position he loves to operate from. He was able to swoop in on certain questions and do really well, answering in a sly superior fashion. If Newt had nights like this in every debate, he would be much closer to being the nominee. Newt probably built up his vote share last night with his quips and insight, but every vote he gets back comes from Santorum not from Romney.

Mitt Romney also fell into the winner circle. Romney is not as good a debater as Newt but was prepared. Preparation can overcome a multitude of sins and what ever else you want to say about Romney, he does prepare well for debates, plus he is getting better at it. One of Romney’s advantages is that he comes across as presidential.

Former Clinton political advisor (now a Republican) and author Dick Morris wrote:

In last night's debate, Romney showed how he has grown through this contest and has developed into a presidential figure. By contrast, Santorum's performance was distinctly congressional. I found myself agreeing with Santorum on much of what he said, but willing to follow Romney. In sync with Rick, but trusting

Mitt.Santorum's replies were pedantic, tactical, and detailed. No inspiration there. He was like a lawyer advocating his case or a congressman battling for a bill. But Romney came across as a real leader - charismatic, bold, strong, and, ultimately, inspiring. See his full post HERE.

Ron Paul could have been a winner if he could have stayed away from foreign policy issues. Foreign policy, specifically Iran, is his Achilles heel. Iran is a threat to America. Radical Islam is a threat to America. We are not threatening Iran. Iran is threatening America and Israel; the big and little Satans as they call us. Ron did have some humorous moments last night. And what I do agree with Ron Paul on is that we need to formally declare wars before entering into them!.

CNN is a winner too. CNN did not hit any of the Republicans with any really bad gotcha questions and the really stupid questions, like describe yourself with one word, were kept to a minimum.

The Republican Party, with twenty some debates has also scored big with the Debates. They have been a big draw for the networks that have carried them so have been a good showcase for all of the Republican candidates. A year ago, who would have believed we would have had this many debates?

The losers:

Rick Santorum. Santorum needed a knock out punch today to beat Romney. He did not get it.  He stumbled.  Not only did he not get his knock out punch, he was back on his heels most of the debate. He stumbled and fumbled in dealing with all of the candidates. Santorum did not have the worst debate performance ever. He did not forget which departments he would abolish. But his performance was not one of his best nights.

If Santorum had delivered with some of the strong points he had in previous debates he might have continued doing better going into Michigan and Arizona. This debate could have the same consequences as did the bad debates for Gingrich in Florida.

The Republican Establishment is also a loser of sorts. For years they have allowed the liberal media to call the shots on their debates. The Republican mainstream voters are tired of it. Blogs ranging from the Tea Party Nation to Red State and on have called the GOP establishment on this; even the National Review addressed this today.

Santorum started with momentum tonight, but he needed to have a debate strategy. Romney had  his debate strategy down. He was going to get in someone’s face and push them back on their heels. Gingrich was in his preferred position and he had the strategy of being the Republican wise man, which he pulled off well and relished in.  And Ron Paul was his independent self and really went after Santorum.

Santorum seemed to have no strategy other than to just showing up, and neither he nor Newt came across as presidential

We will know in the next few days how badly this debate hurt Santorum, since the voters have been so fickle this primary season. One thing is certain. Romney can probably breathe a little easier tonight and the polls in Michigan should keep tightening. Donald Trump appeared with Greta on the Record after the debate and Trump said he just saw that Romney have pulled into the lead in Michigan where Santorum had been leading. If Romney wins Michigan and Arizona he has a decided advantage on Super Tuesday.

The outcome of the upcoming primaries may shift the entire ebb and flow of the GOP race again and could end the talk of a brokered convention, one of the ongoing side stories in this roller coaster of a race.  Some feel it could be the best thing that ever happened to the GOP, but most feel it would be a nightmare.  And some still think there could be surprises ahead on both sides.

But if the American people don’t wake up as to the importance of this election… America and everyone in it is the loser. Only 4.5 million people watched last night’s debate, in probably the most important election of all our life times. That is a travesty! And truly if you are not paying attention you are not equipped to vote!

Another side story is the question of whether Ron Paul has been keeping his Mitts off Mitt in order to get his son, Rand, on the ticket?  Ron or Rand Paul will at least get a speaking position and input at the convention if Ron keeps picking up delegates.

Like Father Like Son?  Maybe but smoother around the edges?

Many feel it’s all coming down to this: Ron Paul is staying in this race, no matter what, in order to assist Romney, because he wants his son to be on the Presidential ticket with Mitt Romney.

As he travels around stumping on the basis of his limited government position, he is also fishing to get his son on the ticket with another candidate in this race.  In tonight’s debate on CNN, the elder Paul had every chance to criticize Romney, but he didn’t, and instead spent his time hammering Santorum. Coincidence???

I like many of the things Ron Paul stands for in the domestic arena, but can the younger Paul effect policy changes as part of the Romney team, or will virtually none of Ron Paul’s positions be adopted in the end?  It could be interesting if they can pull it off!  As they say, politics make strange bedfellows and Romney’s presidency would be the antithesis of much of what Ron Paul has advocated.

At the conclusion of the debate on CNN, Anderson Cooper came on as the stage emptied of the candidates, and I watched with interest as Mitt Romney got up and directly went to shake Ron Paul’s hand and exchange a few words with him.

This is definitely season full of surprises!

Related:

BREAKING: Did Sarah Palin Just Announce She Would Accept The GOP Nomination if Drafted?

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

Expect Costly Lawsuits With Voter Photo ID Says ACLU of MN

Breitbart to Conservatives: "Unite or Perish!"

Conservative Super Star Sarah Palin: Brought the Red Meat to CPAC and They Loved It… Loved Her!

Audio: Santorum’s Right on Religion - Religious Liberty… ObamaCare’s First Casualty

Rubio’s Mormon Past Revealed - There is a definite question as to Rubio’s eligibility to be president/VP but on this issue… Obama’s father and step-father were Muslims and his mother and grandparents were progressive atheists… Obama himself, questionable and we are worried about Mormons? Really??

Breaking: Did Sarah Palin Just Announce She Would Accept the GOP Nomination if Drafted? – Updated

BREAKING: Did Sarah Palin Just Announce She Would Accept The GOP Nomination if Drafted?

Oh man, what a day this has turned out to be. Sarah Palin has been all over Fox News today, including making a surprise appearance on The Five, setting between Bob Beckel and Eric Bolling, who has been teasing her appearance on his Fox Business News show Follow the Money, which brings us to what currently has everyone buzzing.

This is a supposed transcript from the interview she did with Eric, from Time Magazine:

BOLLING: Governor, a lot of people are saying it can’t happen. I don’t necessarily agree with them. If one of the nominees, one of the GOPers, doesn’t get enough delegates, it could go the a brokered convention.

If it does get to that and someone said, Governor, would you be interested, would you be interested?

PALIN: Well, for one, I think that it could get to that. And I — you know, if it had to — if it had to be kind of closed up today, the whole nominating process, then we would be looking at a brokered convention.

I mean nobody is quite there yet. So I think that months from now, if that’s the case, then, you know, all bets are off as to who it will be willing to offer themselves up in the name of service to their country. I would — I would do whatever I could to help.

BOLLING: That’s — that’s fantastic.

Putting this in the context of Sarah’s Fox interviews with Greta, the gang on Fox and Friends, and Martha MacCallum, where she is clearly displeased with how the current candidates are handling themselves, as well as going after President Obama full speed, it seems she has decided she may have to take matters into her own hand!

Of course, this could be nothing more than a huge shot across the bow of all of the campaigns, and the GOP, warning them to get their act together. Or it could be she’s been listening to all of us who wanted her to run from day one.

Of course, I’m quite biased, as I have thought she would make a great president since 2007!

It also seems Sarah may be appearing on Red Eye [with Jedediah Bila] in the wee hours of the morning! [they actually tape the show earlier] Stay up late or set your DVRs! Red Eye airs 3 AM eastern.

All I know is the next few days are going to be a bit crazy!

By Gary P Jackson

Related:

Breitbart to Conservatives Unite or Parish

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

Conservative Super Star Sarah Palin: Brought the Red Meat to CPAC and They Loved It… Loved Her!

· Sarah Palin a surprise guest on The Five   -  Wednesday, February 15, 2012 8:31:04 PM · by Southnsoul · 15 replies

The Right Scoop ^ | February 15, 2012

This is just fun. Sarah Palin was a surprise guest on The Five, which apparently was even a surprise to The Five. Watch to the end though to see Palin kick Bob Beckel for a few of the things he’s said about her: Video at the link.

· Palin on brokered convention "do whatever I could to help." -  Wednesday, February 15, 2012 8:38:29 PM · by cdchik123 · 22 replies

time ^

Essential reading: Palin, on Fox Business Network, says a brokered convention could happen and, if it does, she would "do whatever I could to help." Read the transcript below. BOLLING: Governor, a lot of people are saying it can't happen. I don't necessarily agree with them. If one of the nominees, one of the GOPers, doesn't get enough delegates, it could go the a brokered convention. If it does get to that and someone said, Governor, would you be interested, would you be interested? PALIN: Well, for one, I think that it could get to that. And I -- you...

· Sarah Palin, could she be ... -  Wednesday, February 15, 2012 9:39:38 PM · by 2ndDivisionVet

Nolan Chart ^ | February 15, 2012 | Mark Vogel

If Sarah is flirting, I was seduced a long time ago! For everyone who doesn't want Romney, this is huge! It's only in the modern era that Presidential nominations have been locked up before most American voters even tuned in. So this year, for the nation, the Republican Primary is kind of a return to older times, when all Americans counted, not just the few power brokers. The race has been a very rich blue blood from New England ( where he would not carry one state in the general election ) and a group of three, Newt, Rick and...

· Palin’s star may have faded, but her grass-roots influence persists  -  Wednesday, February 15, 2012 8:58:59 PM · by 2ndDivisionVet · 10 replies

The Washington Post ^ | February 14, 2012 | Stephanie McCrummen

It was a Sarah Palin crowd. At a conference of conservative activists last week, there were stacks of Sarah Palin books and Sarah Palin posters. A special screening of a film about Palin was planned. And after skipping the gathering for four years, Palin herself had agreed at last to give the keynote address. Having traveled from Buffalo, Jason Benner was there to see the one who made his heart soar. “Wayne LaPierre,” he said with gusto, referring to the head of the National Rifle Association. He named the rest of his top five speakers — Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney,...

Sarah Palin: ‘I’m Game’ to Run for Future Office & ‘All Bets Are Off’ in Event of Brokered GOP Convention

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin isn’t one for divulging the tactical details of her (potential) future political plans. In fact, the 2008 vice-presidential contender is known for leaving much to the imagination when it comes to future electoral prospects. Last year, she made fans wait quite a while before announcing that she wouldn’t be seeking the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.

On Wednesday, on FOX Business’ “Follow the Money,“ Palin told Eric Bolling she ”would do whatever [she] could to help,” leaving the door open to any and all possibilities should a brokered convention take form later this year.

Breitbart to Conservatives: "Unite or Perish!"

Video:  Breitbart to Conservatives: "Unite or Perish!"

Andrew Breitbart on The Victory Sessions with host Stephen K. Bannon on KABC - http://www.kabc.com/showdj.asp?DJID=59651

"Conservatives must Unite or Perish". "The Occupy Movement was created to get Obama elected.

Video: Andrew’s Unity Speech at CPAC

Earlier to day… There was tweet from Fox News’ Eric Bolling saying:

ALERT! Palin breaking big news... the 15 minutes with Gov Sarah that may change everything.. stay tuned 10p FBN

There are many people out there praying that she will still jump in!!

But whoever the GOP nominee ends up being, we better unite, sooner vs. later, or the America we knew and loved is done!

**  I just read an exclusive alert from Reuters –Exclusive: Clinton in talks about possible move to World Bank.  This is frightening because it is a possible sign that the global elite are much closer to their New Economic World Order than we wanted to believe.  There will not be a second chance to save freedom, America or turn back the clock (and definitely not in our lifetimes).  If we do not unite and put our individual preferences aside to fight like Hell to save the Country our Founders gave us between now and Election Day 2012 (if we have that long), we are done!  Please wake-up America… It is almost too late! Third parties, not voting and endless in-fighting are just not acceptable this time around… because if we take that path, there won’t be a next time around! **

Related:

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

GOP Candidates Still Swinging

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

Photo:  Real Clear Politics

For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the 2012 primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, at the end of the primary stream. drafting their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, or ???

But as sure as Jeb Bush will be proposed, so will Sarah Palin. She is now and always has been the singular Reaganesque super-star voice in the original Tea Party phenomenon; the only one who can bring it to the mainstream. Her absence from the primary race has left a vacuum and no substitute has been found. Every other possible or potential leadership hopeful has risen and receded in this already seemingly long Republican primary season. 

All reports from the CPAC conference, the former Alaska governor received far and away the most spirited and enthusiastic reception at the convention of about 10,000 conservative activists. She drew the audience to its feet more than a dozen times during her keynote address on Saturday. “The cheers for Palin were so loud that they drowned out her remarks again and again,” he writes. “Conference organizers had to set up three overflow rooms to accommodate the throngs of supporters eager to hear her words.”

Sarah Palin bated clean-up at CPAC and hit a home run!  Her appearance reminded CPAC’s attendees how much they missed her. Palin was/is the conservative super-star.  She brought the red meat to CPAC and crowd loved it… as they loved her!  Palin repeatedly said the door was open for a conservative victory, but the door that seemed to be open the widest was the one to her political future as the leader of the conservative movement and as heiress to the Reagan legacy.  Sarah once again proved her conservative relevancy… It was her party on Saturday, and it could be for the foreseeable future. The only questions remains, could that include a place for here on the party ticket in a brokered primary?

Remember… Palin has already been there once for a dress rehearsal.

Photo: McCain Election Album 2008

Many have been adamant that the outcome of a brokered convention is extremely unlikely. For it to occur, there has to be an almost perfect storm of events; the GOP elites can’t just declare shenanigans on the primary season and select a new nominee. Instead, something has to prevent any of the current candidates from clinching a majority of the delegates; if one of them amasses that majority, he will be the nominee on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa. But has anyone else noticed how often they ask Mitt Romney about this possibility?

It is looking more and more like the the GOP fight could eventually degenerate into an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party, with Romney on one side and a single alternative on the other. Unless there was a late entrant or Ron Paul caught fire in the caucus states, someone was virtually assured of claiming the requisite number of delegates in that scenario. (However, there are signs that the Romney and Paul camps may have already brokered a deal.)

Something else to remember, the GOP does have super-delegates of a sort, in the form of the 63 RNC members. They aren’t as numerous as they are in the Democratic Party, but they are still there. While many of them have already declared allegiance to one candidate or another, those commitments can evaporate quickly, as Hillary Clinton learned all to well to her sorrow in 2008.

Additionally and perhaps even more importantly, demographic and geographic splits are beginning to surface in the GOP that resemble the splits in the Democratic Party in 2008. That year, Hillary Clinton laid claim to working-class whites and Latino voters, while Barack Obama laid claim to college-educated whites and African-Americans. This divide continued throughout the primary, right up to the last day of voting.

The GOP split is still speculative at this point. But to see the possibility, examine the map of U.S. counties and how they have voted so far. Blue counties backed Romney, red backed Gingrich, green are for Santorum, while white have gone for some other candidate (or not yet voted).

Map:  Real Clear Politics

Romney has done well in New Hampshire and south Florida; the latter is basically the North transplanted to the South. This suggests continued strength in the Northeast. He’s also done well in the Mountain West: Nevada was in his camp, as was a large portion of the Western Slope of Colorado. Note also the handful of counties in southern Colorado that went for Romney; they are heavily Mexican-American, and Romney has run well with Latino voters in the GOP contests thus far.

Next, Gingrich. There is continued resistance to Mitt Romney in the GOP among evangelicals. These voters are concentrated largely, but not exclusively, in the South. And as we see, the former House speaker ran well in South Carolina as well as in northern Florida, and is expected to do well in Georgia. This caused many to conclude that Gingrich was on the verge of emerging as the definitive not-Romney.

But now we have to consider that Santorum has won Iowa and Minnesota in the Midwest, and won Colorado largely on the strength of his showing in eastern Colorado (which is basically the Great Plains). He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern -- but Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot there. For now at least, he is the "anti-Romney" in the Midwest. Santorum is getting a bit of boost from the Catholic birth control mandate issue, but some aren’t so sure about his fiscal conservatism.

If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.

We will find out how viable this path is in the next few weeks. In the lead-up to Super Tuesday, we’ll probably see Romney win Arizona, Michigan and Maine. Arizona and Maine are in his demographic wheelhouse, while he is a native Michigander and his father was governor of the state (Although in a recent survey 67% of the people living in Michigan were not born or did not live in Michigan when George Romney was Governor). Washington is a coastal state, where Romney’s strength hasn’t been tested, so it is up in the air.

Super Tuesday will likely be tougher for him. Four of the five largest states -- Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia -- are Southern (or in Oklahoma's case, culturally Southern). Romney will likely win Virginia by default, but he will probably fare poorly in the remaining three. If Gingrich can stay in the race and maintain his strength in the South, he will likely win them.

On the other hand, Romney will probably do well in Massachusetts, Idaho and Vermont. Santorum seems well-positioned to win North Dakota. But let us remember, Santorum is fourth in delegates, behind Ron Paul.

So the viability of a three-way split probably comes down to Ohio, which has a fair number of evangelicals, though not to the degree that Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia do. Santorum has some strengths he can draw on in the Buckeye State, as his blue-collar message could play well even among Republicans there. If he wins, it means that we probably do have a deeply divided GOP, with Gingrich taking the anti-Romney vote in the South, and Santorum taking the anti-Romney vote in the Midwest.

The key is that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can begin to do so well that the other drops out. Both must remain effectively regional candidates. If Gingrich’s support collapses in the South, it might leave an opening there for Santorum. We’ve seen some potential evidence of this, as Gingrich’s support in Gallup’s tracking poll is down about seven points since the Florida primary (although it isn’t down in the wake of Santorum’s wins Tuesday night). If that were to occur, we would be back to a two-person race. There is also now word that Gingrich’s financial supporter, Adelson, has pulled out.  Most feel he will stay in the race, but that his star has faded.

Alternatively, Santorum’s support could turn out to be confined to caucus states and/or states where Romney failed to spend money. Remember, Colorado and Minnesota are small state caucuses, virtually ignored by the candidates. Santorum’s win in Minnesota was large enough, however, that it could indicate broader support among the general electorate (as was his showing in eastern Colorado). This might allow Gingrich to step in, or Romney to wrap up the nomination. But Santorum says he has a plan to beat Mitt in Michigan.

But in the event this scenario does unfold through Super Tuesday, we would then begin a long slog. But unlike 2008, where Obama’s states were frontloaded and allowed him to gain an air of inevitability early on, here the states are spread out. The remainder of March contains Northern caucuses in Wyoming and Kansas. There are Southern states: Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. At the same time, areas with heavily Latino population such as Puerto Rico, and states with relatively liberal Republican parties (Illinois) will cast their ballots. The fact that these contests award their delegates proportionately will prevent any candidate from breaking out.

In April, Gingrich would have a great chance in Texas, Maryland and Delaware (increasingly de facto Southern states in the GOP primary electorate), while Romney would receive large delegate hauls in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York. Santorum would have primaries in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In the end, we could end up in California in early June with no clear nominee. While that state is nominally winner-take-all for a whopping 172 delegates, in fact it allocates the overwhelming majority of those delegates by Congressional District. Who is voting in a Republican primary in Nancy Pelosi’s or Maxine Waters’ district? I honestly have no idea, but if they’re different from the voters in the Latino central valley districts, and if they’re different than the voters in Orange County, and if they’re different from the voters in the Sierra districts, we really could have a situation where the state doesn’t produce a winner for the GOP.

If this occurs, and Ron Paul wins around 100 delegates along the way, we have a situation where no candidate has more than 900 delegates, and three have more than 400. In that situation, no one would be able to lay claim to the mantle of presumptive nominee. The convention would eventually deadlock, and an outside candidate could emerge.

The Bush family secret agenda has been a subliminal theme for months with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the favored proxy and pitchman. But at CPAC it broke through to the surface: Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, says that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee.  (Cardenas is already walking back his comments and his speech is disappearing from the Internet… but the cat is out of the bag.) It made Drudge this past weekend.

This would not be without its difficulties. We’ve seen the problem with sudden, late entrants before. The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.

And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s. One wing of the party might not be satisfied. Chris Christie’s name is frequently mentioned, but he believes in climate change and favors civil unions. How will the religious right react when that is in the spotlight? Mitch Daniels may bore Tea Partiers looking for a fighter, and his past as Bush’s budget director is a black mark waiting to be exploited by his opponent. Jeb Bush is a Bush. And so forth. And then there are the the new, independent, states-oriented, freedom-seeking constitutional conservatives… a ticket of the Western states, a Palin/Perry ticket ticket from Alaska and Texas. Now wouldn’t that be interested?

Conservatism is at the shore of a new awakening but is afraid to cross the river. It goes back to Gov. Rick Perry’s Texas primary race. From Quigley’s Pundits Blog of Jan. 21, 2010: “The Austin Statesman reported that former President George H.W. Bush will endorse U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary for governor in her race against Rick Perry. Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Margaret Spellings and Karen Hughes [W.’s agent] also support Hutchison … But Sarah Palin supports Rick Perry and will appear with him at a rally on Super Bowl Sunday. Does one Sarah Palin equal a Bush, a Rove, a Spellings and a Hughes? In Texas, I believe it does.”  …Bernie Quigley

Perry won in a landslide. But why would the Bush establishment pull out all the stops to support Hutchison, who was sure to lose? Because they saw a new conservative movement building with Perry and Palin and were determined early on to stamp it out. They still are.
Bush/Christie or Christie/Bush as “establishment” representation is bound to bring muffled chuckles (“Hey Abbott!!!”) and Obama would win in a landslide. But Bush/Christie vs. Sarah Palin/Rick Perry positions coming head to head at the Republican Convention would pit the storied worlds of Dexter and Paulie Walnuts; the most notoriously corrupt, burned-out, busted-up, used-up, dangerous, underwater and broke Eastern states, against the new, independent, states-oriented, freedom-seeking constitutional conservatives like Palin of the Western states, Texas and Alaska. Now that would be interesting.

The path to this outcome is still a very narrow, precarious one. But for the first time, I can see it.  A Jeb Bush/Christy fight against Palin/Perry with maybe even a Romney/Santorum or Romney/Rand Paul option still sitting out there… or a Palin/Santorum option?  Can you see it? I am beginning to!

h/t to Real Clear Politics and The Hill’s Pundit’s Blog

Related Reading:

The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs - and Who Will Take It

The Road to the White House 2012