Romney Beats Obama in New Poll

Photo: PatDollard

By TAL KOPAN | 11/19/13 6:53 AM EST -  POLITICO: As more bad poll numbers continue to pour in for President Barack Obama, a new survey finds that if the 2012 election matchup were held this month, Mitt Romney would hold the edge with the voters.

Romney topped Obama 49 percent to 45 percent among registered voters in the Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday. Among all Americans, the 2012 rivals would be tied, at 47 percent.

Obama beat Romney 51 percent to 47 percent a year ago to win a second term.

The poll also found more bad news for Obama: His approval was down to 42 percent, a fall of 6 points from a month ago. Fifty-five percent disapproved of the job he is doing as president.

Support for the president’s signature health care law was also down 6 points since late October, standing at 40 percent. Fifty-seven percent said they oppose the law. Similarly, approval of Obama’s handling of Obamacare was also underwater, with 33 percent approving to 67 percent disapproving.

The Post surveyed 1,006 adults from Nov. 14 to 17 for the poll, which has an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The most frustrating part is that we now know that Romney was right about Benghazi, that the unemployment numbers (Jobs) Report released right before the 2012 Election was faked plus Romney knows economics and business; expertise we desperately need..  Add to that the vast amount of reported voter fraud and voter intimidation, in both the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections and every American should feel cheated.

In an interview with Chris Wallace last March, Romney said it is killing him not to be president.

Video: Mitt Romney To Fox: 'It Kills Me' To Not Be President

Related:

How Democrats Plan On Stealing The Presidency In 2016

Flash Poll Immediately After First Presidential Debate Found Romney the Big Winner, Independents Turn on Obama

Video: First Presidential Debate: Obama vs. Romney (Complete HD - Quality Audio)

A Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage Flash Poll conducted immediately after Wednesday's presidential debate finds that Mitt Romney won by a significant margin.

Asked who won the debate, 52 percent of respondents said Romney did, with 45 percent for Obama. Undecided/neither was 3 percent.

Pollster Matt Towery says "the results largely followed party lines, but independents broke in favor of Romney, moving the dial in his favor."

The poll sampled 373 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of 5 points.

CNN flash poll:  67% said Romney won, only 27 % said Obama won with 3% not sure.

Looks like they are leaning right… after Wednesday night

Anatomy Of An Ass Kicking

TPN: First things first, I usually only release these guys for electoral victories, but what the hey. Last night's Romney victory was so overwhelming, (and Obama's performance was likewise so underwhelming,) that I believe it is fitting to let fly the Baby Elephants.

I have two clips here for comparison on the analysis of last night's events. The first is from Michelle Malkin, who managed to catch some of the things that I missed in my euphoria last night. Suffice it to say that Willard Romney exceeded even the lofty expectations that came with Chris Christie's confident tossing of the proverbial gauntlet. What Mitt Romney did specifically was to take every single ridiculous canard ever uttered as a lefty talking point over the past three decades and use fact, reason, and plain English to use that canard as a weapon with which to bitch slap President Zero. Had John McCain showed half this amount of fight four years ago, he would be President today, defending himself against Hillary Clinton. How bad was the beat down? At one point during the evening's festivities, Little Barry pleaded with Jim Lehrer to change topics, the debate equivalent to declaring a TKO.

And now for something completely different, and by different I mean watching Chrissy Mathews come completely unglued in his, "objectivity," while describing his take on how the debate went. (I guess he didn't have that thrill going up his leg last night.) I will at this point in time point out that Jim Lehrer gave me an unexpected pleasant surprise with how he handled his moderating duties last night. The debate was not at all about Lehrer being the star, or about how slantingly he could phrase his questions. He merely stated a topic, gave it a gentle nudge to get the juices flowing, and then removed himself from the conversation. That was the first time in my memory watching the two candidates primarily having a substantive discussion on values, beliefs, philosophies, agendas, and policy positions in which they were able to speak to the issues and differences in any sort of a meaningful way. It was truly an argument in the arena of ideas. So how did Chrissy see it all?

When I was in High School, much longer ago than I certainly like to admit, my girlfriend was on the school's debate team. I went to one of her events, and two things immediately struck me. One, She was really quite a lot smarter than I was, and two, the rules of the debate seemed rather odd. Each team was given a week to prepare for the upcoming debate, but rather than assign differing sides to an issue, each team was allowed to choose which side they would take. They had to prepare rebuttals to both sides, not knowing which side the other team would take. I found it amusing that every team at almost every debate chose the same side to argue.

There are many people on the left and right who felt Barack Obama came in woefully under prepared for last night's debate. While that may be true, it is also true that Barack Obama is in the position of having to defend the worst Administration in America's 236 year history. He has no such choice as to which position of this debate he would like to argue. When you take away the smoke and mirrors, the spin, the lap dog media, and his stellar ability to read a speech from a teleprompter, this election, and mostly these debates will be about whether we should award another four years of America's future to Barack Obama.

In his first statement, Barack Obama told us that this election should not be about the past, but about the future. Them's not exactly fighting words, them's hiding words. In a nut shell, President Obama is walking a tightrope here. On the one hand he's happy to have the natural advantage of incumbency on his side in the upcoming election, and on the other hand, he would rather voters really not think too long or hard as to what kind of a job he's done during the previous four years. There's already been a lot of hand wringing on the left about why oh why Barack Obama did not bring up this point or that point, mostly pieces of the aforementioned ridiculousness concerning the supposed 47% gaffe, Bain Capital, war on women, etc. There is a reason for that. President Obama started trotting out the talking points early and often in the first ten minutes of the evening. He got what he thought were his best kill shots fired back at him in a manner that left visible marks on his person and psyche. After 20 minutes of that, five of his best punches having left its indelible mark on his squarely paddled backside, the rest of the evening became about Barack Obama's attempt to run out the clock and put an end to the misery of the left. Barack Obama's speech became noticeably slow, pretty much the same cadence one might find in the local police department drunk tank. He spoke long and slowly, and avoided anything even resembling a point, lest it be rolled up in stone and fired back at him as another candidacy ending salvo.

Mitt Romney on the other hand had another challenge. The Obama campaign has spent Hundreds of Millions of dollars in an effort to portray Mitt Romney as evil to his core, a man we should expect to see entering the debate sporting horns on his head and with a barbed tail protruding from under his suit coat. The only thing Romney needed to do in order to win was to walk out on stage without a red pitch fork and not eat a baby in some sort of ritualistic sacrifice. As no babies died in Denver last night, and Mitt Romney did not have any props which could be mistaken for a red pitchfork, everything else that happened was gravy. There was oh so much gravy. My personal favorite moment of the night was early on when Barack brought up my pet peeve of Democrat canards, those supposed oil subsidies, which as a matter of fact are nothing more than straight line expense deductions any business takes while preparing their income tax returns. (The oil industry happens to be the second most heavily taxed industry in our nation, with Tobacco being number one.) Mitt politely pointed out that in one year, Green Subsidies are 50 times greater than even the fictitious Oil Subsidies, and for a far smaller benefit I might add.

In the end it was nothing more than one small night which signaled that the race is not over yet. Mitt Romney is still in this race, and is probably ahead if looked at honestly. Special note to the Romney team, Barack Obama is not going to take this lying down. In the game of, "is the Republican Stupid, Senile, of Evil," there is only one choice that fits Mitt Romney. Expect the attacks to be stepped up immediately, and expect the next debate performance made by our President to look different. The good news is that the next one of these will be on foreign policy, just at a time when Obama's endeavors in that area have 25% of America's embassies set ablaze. It should be fun.

Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.

Technorati Tags: 2012 Election,debates,Election 2012,Independents,Mitt Romney,Mitt Romney in 2012,polls,Romney wins,Romney-Ryan,TKO,undecideds,VOTERS

Lighten Up Eeyore, The Pollsters Don't Even Agree With Each Other

TPN: Sadly, this obsession over what has to be the most misunderstood science in all of American life has become a ritual, with a life all its own. So, now the depression is full bore, and even people on the Republican side are beginning to show signs of depression, despite all of our solid promises to ourselves and each other that this year, we would not fall for this lunacy, no matter what. If you really believe that the worst President in our Nation's history, the man who's policy of appeasement has seen a quarter of our embassies around the world set ablaze, the man who's domestic policies have shut down all domestic energy production on federal lands, the man who's economic policies have made him the first President since Herbert Hoover to see less Americans working after a full term in office than on the day he was sworn into office, will win the election by 8 to 10 points, then I happen to be in possession of the Brooklyn Bridge, and would be willing to sell.

What is most perplexing to me about the devotion to the polls is this. If the polls were at all accurate, they would be very close to delivering us the same numbers. If that were the case, nobody would be logging onto the Real Clear Politics website in order to see what the daily average of all the polls had to say about the daily average of all polls where every poll should be mirroring the daily average.

Consider this also, after every election cycle, all of the polls are ranked in accuracy, and surprisingly, none of the polls being quoted anywhere by anyone are ever close to the top of that list. Rasmussen and Zogby will typically rank 1 and 2, and neither will be discussed on the evening news. We'll discuss both of these companies later, and why they get closer than the other more famous members of the polling community.

What is a better predictor of election results is history, and in that spirit, Dick Morris has an analysis that is probably much more predictive than anything you'll see in the polls. In his article, Dick Morris combines an historical perspective with the polling results to give us what I believe to be one of the best predictive analyses available

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48).

He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-46) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That’s the real state of play today.

When a pollster conducts his interviews, he does not contact only the number of people reported in the headline. They will usually contact 3 to 4 times that number of people. You will also not see the actual breakdown of how people responded in the headline. What you see, his finished product, will be a weighted average based on what the pollster feels will be the demographic distribution of who will ultimately vote, in other words, his guess.

Typically, when interviews are conducted, a voting model of demographic distribution exists before hand. A certain percentage of women, men, breakdowns by age, race, religion, party affiliation, etc. Then percentages of how each demographic would vote is the information gleaned from the polling interviews. For instance, pretty much all of the pollsters agree today that Barack Obama would win 85% of the democrats who voted, and Mitt Romney would likely garner 86% of the Republicans who voted. What is in dispute is how the voting demographic will break down. How many 18 to 21 year old kids this time? Four years ago, that demographic turned out huge for Barack Obama, now that 50% of them have remained unemployed for the entirety of Barack Obama's term in office, and they are 4 years older, will they turn out in the same force? Will today's crop of 18 to 21 year old voters vote in similar fashion as their counterparts from 4 years ago? Typically, this demographic has an abhorrent track record when it comes to voting.
What you have at the end of the day is this. Polls are only going to be as accurate as their predictions as to what the demographic make up of the actual voting sample turns out to be. What PPP, Marist, Quinipiac, USA Today, are telling us with their samples is that the voting make up this year will look exactly as the make up looked in 2008. In 2008, Goerge W. Bush was despised almost universally, albeit unjustly, and the Democrats in our country were hyped up as never before for their man Barack Obama. He was viewed as somewhat of a messianic figure during the height of the hopety change fervor that had gripped the nation's dopes. My fellow citizens were chanting, in a scene that came straight out of 1930's Germany. What these polls are telling us, is that America is still in that mood today.

Think about this for one moment. Compare the size of the crowds traveling to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Consider the difference in size of the Tea Party crowds to the faked inhabited tents of the Occupests. Twice since the convention, and once during it, Barack Obama was forced to change venues to something smaller due to a lack of attendance.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

First off, Rasmussen asks the question up front, do you plan on voting. This alone gives his poll an accuracy that the others lack. Registered voter polls include a bias towards the demographics who typically do not vote. Next, Rasmussen uses a different interview process to gain some understanding of what this year's model will actually resemble, without relying on data from 4 years ago. One of the things Rasmussen has found, through polling independent of the question of who will we be voting for, is that people who self identify as Republican is at an all time high. People who self identify as Democrat is at a near historic low. This does not exactly lead one to the conclusion that 2008's record turnout of every Democrat demographic feels that same enthusiasm today, and indeed feels it to an even greater degree.

In the case of Zogby this year, kudos for changing methodology to reflect changes in the level of technology available to citizens. My fear is that he does not yet have a handle of how to accurately utilize his new methodology. Zogby has been extremely quiet this election cycle, and now we all know why. Rather than conducting phone interviews, John Zogby and his company conducted on line interviews. I have seen far too many of these types of polls skewed purposefully, not by the polling companies, but by spammers with an agenda finding holes in the programming sufficient to deliver a result desired. the perfect examples of this were highlighted in 2008, when any online poll of the Republican Primary race showed Ron Paul with support ranging from 70% to 80% of any sample, while he consistently garnered only 2% of the actual vote. I am not saying that Zogby has not found a way to combat this, but his only poll to date this year seems to be somewhat of an outlier, even when compared to the others. I wish John Zogby the best in getting a handle on his new methodology, if successful, it should be a quantum leap in the art.

At this point during the election of 1980, Jimmy Carter supposedly had an 8 point lead over Ronald Reagan. I realize that Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan, but neither is Barack Obama a Jimmy Carter. I am not one of those people who will jump up and down to swear that this is some nefarious plot on the part of all things liberal. I just believe the pollsters to be dead wrong, and that would not make the first time either. In 2004, NBC announced at about noon on election day that our 44th President would be John Kerry, based on their exit polls, which had the benefit of an accurate voting sample.

Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.

Related:

The Reality of 2012 Voter Turnout: The White Voter

Romney Double Digit Lead?

‘Unskewed’ polls show nearly 8-point Romney lead

Race beginning to look a lot like 1980? What might Ronald Reagan’s victory path mean?

Calling All Concerned Americans to Stand-Up

Does Obama expect to lose? – Secret retirement plans

A Must Watch Before Voting…

Must Reads Before Election 2012

Technorati Tags: polls,pollsters,Dick Morris,Election 2012,2012 Election,Mitt Romney in 2012,Romney-Ryan,smoke and mirrors,Obamaland,politics,tea party,Rasmussen Poll,Zogby Poll,skewed polls,unskewed polls,weighted polls

The Reality of 2012 Voter Turnout: The White Voter

Battleground Watch:

The largest divergence among conservative and liberal polling critics this election is the debate over who will actually show up at the voting booth this November. Differences between the amounts of Democrats versus Republicans included in the poll are frequent. But embedded in each of these assumptions are questions on the racial make-up and how that varies from election to election. Democrats consistently talk about the “coalition of the ascendant” where the fastest growing segments of the population are minorities. As such they make up an ever-increasing segment of the voting population but also vote overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats. With a shrinking white population and a growing minority population Democrats argue demography as destiny and count on political majorities for the coming generation. That may be true if everything in life moves in a straight line (it doesn’t) but is that true today?

This is the bone of contention between the competing Presidential campaigns and critics of today’s polls. Democrats want to argue the steep increase in minority percentage of the voting electorate from 2008 election was a fundamental shift in the electorate whereas Republicans want to argue the steep increases were a one-off bounce. Both agree on the general direction of the trend. Neither agree how severe that trend will be in 2012. This disagreement is the basis for Democrat over-confidence and lopsided polling today in an election where the two candidates are most likely within 1-2% of one another.

What’s missing in all this analysis is who did not show up in the 2008 election: White voters. Looking back at those results, every voter turnout rate by race (relative to eligible population) was up versus 2004 except the white vote according to Pew Research (April 30, 2009). Blacks were up +4.9%, Hispanics were up +2.7%, Asians were up +2.4%. But the percentage of White voters who showed up at the polls relative to who was eligible dropped -1.1% (Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, May 2010). This has nothing to do with minorities making up more or less of the electorate. This is simply saying from 2004 to 2008 White voter registration (which actually dropped 104k) and actual turnout of White voters (which increased 500k) did not keep up with voting age White population increases.

Within this drop of White voter turnout, over 3x as many men as women comprised those voters staying home in the election. This happened for any number of reasons ranging from a disinterested national party to a disorganized Presidential campaign to a demoralized voting block–all are true. But the bottom line is one of the advantages Barack Obama enjoyed in 2008 was that a meaningful percentage of white voters simply stayed home in 2008. Side note: for anyone who wants to pin the depressed turnout on racism, wouldn’t the opposite have occurred in 2008 if racism really were a motivating factor in the white turnout?

Where this trips up the Obama campaign.

In 2008 Democrats achieved incredible levels of voter registration and turnout of this “coalition of the ascendent” such that Blacks, Hispanics and Asians made up 24% of the voting electorate — all historic highs. Bolstering the appearance of Democrat advantage are countless media stories reporting on Mitt Romney’s struggle appealing to minority groups. Little attention is paid to Barack Obama’s (and Democrat candidates before him) difficulty appealing to White voters who made up 74% of the electorate. Such historic minority levels for the composition of the electorate are predicated on a demoralized and ineligible (meaning unregistered) white population much like in 2008, as demonstrated above.

If John McCain achieved a white voter turnout rate equal to George Bush in 2004, that would have meant 1.7 million more White votes. While all of these votes would not have gone to McCain (nor were they all in battleground states), a super-majority of these voters likely would have voted Republican considering the make-up of the missing voter (white male — Obama’s worst demographic) and the motivated nature of the Obama voter in 2008 (i.e. if they were Obama supporters, only a scant few percent would have stayed home). Those missing votes would have been more than enough to flip the results in any of North Carolina (14k), Indiana (28.5k,), Nevada (121k), Iowa (146k), Colorado (195k), Virginia (234k), Florida (237k) or Ohio (260k) where Obama’s victory margin (in parentheses) is based on a 43% vote share of a decreased turnout.

Today Barack Obama receives approximately 40% of the White vote in polls but often dips below this level especially when polls fail to massively over-sample Democrats. The President is also facing an increasingly enthusiastic bloc of White voters motivated to vote against him (this shows up in every survey) based on his poor record in office. Additionally, Republicans have aggressively targeted the above mentioned states with voter registration efforts reversing or seriously muting the registration advantage Obama enjoyed in 2008. Net gains for Republicans voter registrations in Nevada (53k), Iowa (140k), Colorado (91k) and Florida (240k) all speak to a very different and Republican electorate in those states. On top of registration, voter contacts from the Romney campaign surpassed 26 million eligible voters across the battleground states to date. This is as much as 10-15x as much as the McCain 2008 campaign. This does not dismiss the aggressive and active Obama re-election effort but it simply points out that compared to 2008 he is no longer battling an unarmed opponent.

All of this is to say when David Axelrod or similar Obama campaign talking heads argue aggressively for polls with a racial composition at meaningfully greater minority levels than the 2008 historic turnout, there is another side of that coin and it works heavily against the turnout models of both the Obama campaign and of the vast majority of polls being published today.

Want things to change? Help educate people and help get out the conservative, independent, evangelical and white vote!! Many are not registered.

Related:

Romney Double Digit Lead? 

‘Unskewed’ polls show nearly 8-point Romney lead

Race beginning to look a lot like 1980? What might Ronald Reagan’s victory path mean?

Calling All Concerned Americans to Stand-Up

Does Obama expect to lose? – Secret retirement plans

A Must Watch Before Voting…

Must Reads Before Election 2012

Technorati Tags: whites,polls,white voters,voter registration,voter turnout,voter fraud,Election 2012,2012 Election,Mitt Romney in 2012,Romney-Ryan,conservatives,independents undecideds,evangelicals,Christians,educate yourself,get involved,Caucasians

Calling All Concerned Americans to Stand-Up

“The United States was the freest country in the world, allowing freedom of all speech including the discussion of politics and religion at any level; pre-Progressive era.  Yet Americans have allowed themselves to become one of the most politically correct societies in which people generally discuss less about religion or politics than most around the world…”

It is time for everyone who is concerned about America’s future and the future of their children and grandchildren to come together to work and pray.  We have approximately 40-days to decide the future…

November 6, 2012, although in some areas the voting will begin before the 1st presidential debate even takes place… go figure, is the most important election of our life time(s) because it will determine the future path of our nation for everyone who lives in America; actually in the world because of the difference our ‘the choice’ will make globally.

Even if you are not normally one to get involved politically or to speak out… this is the time!

We must counter the corrupt media, help educate people around us, help get out the vote and protect the integrity of the voting process as well as the vote counting process.  And it will take every informed American to get engaged to get this done fairly and honestly.

The tools are out there.  The information is available.  And Romney can win. He actually is winning in the honest polls.  But Team Obama and the liberal media will do whatever they possibly can to make Americans believe that President Obama is in the lead and will win, so that Republicans might skip going to the voting booth.  Team Obama and their media minions will also keep up their misinformation campaign that Mitt Romney is inept by focusing on and exaggerating every tiny misstep by either Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney (and in many cases down right lying), while not reporting, misreporting or spinning anything potentially damaging to President Obama or VP Joe Biden, as they since Obama announced his candidacy for the 2008 race, throughout his presidency and throughout the present race.

Many Americans of all stripes are finally waking up to the smoke and mirrors concerning Obama’s past, the figures and spin on the economy as well as the administrations ineptness in foreign policy.  Even if you like President Obama as a person, or are a life-time Democrat, the truth is just becoming overwhelming for many a diehard and even those who do not pay regular attention to the news and politics… but not to all.  And then there is the focused campaign to commit voter fraud, from throwing out voter ID laws, to allowing intimidation at the polls, to pre-set and slanted voting machines, to unchecked voter registration of dead people, dead animals, cartoon characters or multiple registrations of the same person.  Plus we have the added problem of using a company located in Spain to count many of our votes. 

And that is where we all come in.

Choose a person or group of people to share information with:

Are your children, nieces or nephews, grandkids, etc. planning to vote according to what their professors or friends are telling them, yet they have no real knowledge of the issues, the candidates or history?  Or do you have friends who are voting Democrat because they always have?  Or do you live near a senior center where someone has falsely convinced them that if they vote for Romney-Ryan they will lose their Medicare, have their Social Security reduced or even worse.

1. Educate yourself
2. Offer to teach a class or question answer forum at your community center, library or a nearby senior center and invite a speaker, co-host, or speak yourself
3. Start conversations with your friends and family about what you have learned and found out.
4. Start a blog and share your articles online and with friends and family.
5. Use the tools available.  Take someone who is a-political, undecided or uninformed to see: ‘2016: the Movie’, ‘Unvetted’, ‘Last Ounce of Courage’ or to a rally or fundraiser, etc.
6. Volunteer for a campaign
7. Donate money and time to campaigns who need help
8. Volunteer to work at the polls
9. Join an action committee to make sure the votes are counted correctly
10. Email people worthwhile information, including about election and candidate specials.
11. Stand up for any and all injustices in the voting process and insist they be corrected… before allowing any candidate to be seated, from the President on down.

Future generations will thank you!

We are being had by the mainstream (lamestream) media and by the polls; something that became even more evident over the past couple weeks since the terror attack in Benghazi on 9/11 and the outbreak of violence in the Middle East and across the world.  It highlighted the failure of this administration’s foreign policy decisions, the lack of truthfulness by Team Obama and the media, and the collusion between the two.  Plus the past couple of weeks have also shown us a worsening economic picture.

Then add to that the skewing of the polls:

Many of the polls have been skewed anywhere by 3 to 13 points in favor or Obama… why?  Because they are hoping that conservatives and Independents will give up, won’t go to the polls or will vote for the anticipated winner.  Show them they are wrong!!

Examiner: According to the state polls on August 25, 2012 Mitt Romney would have won the presidential race over Barack Obama if the nation voted that day. Likewise, Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking polls showed the race statistically tied nationally with President Obama at 46 percent to Mitt Romney polling at 45 percent.

The map above showed little change since the last GOP2112 analysis of the race on August 15, 2012 which showed Romney leading with 359 electoral votes. The recent polling available for most of the states causes no changes in projections of those states with just a few exceptions. While the president has gained no states from the last analysis to this one showed by the map above, the states of Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon have moved from leaning to Romney to toss-up status. Real Clear Politics (RCP) has all four of these states listed as leaning to Obama. But the weakness of the RCP averages is including a number of polls, by mainstream media outlets that are clearly skewed to favor Democrats, that result in skewing their averages the same way. Absent the skewed polls, the few remaining accurate polls show these states too close to call.

What is important to note, at this juncture, is these states are all states won by Barack Obama in 2008 and are key battlegrounds this year. The fact that states won easily by Obama four years ago are now toss-up states show the campaign this year is being fought on ground that was favorable to the president in 2008. This illustrates a degree of strength for the Romney campaign and a key sign of weakness for Obama's campaign. Yet the bias liberal media keeps reporting that Obama is leading in the skewed national polls by anywhere between a few points up to 13-points.

And earlier today… 09.24.12 it was reported that  nine new state polls were released showing 10-states that moved toward Obama and putting Ohio in the win category… even on Fox  Yet still others, like former Clinton advisor Dick Morris, believe that Romney has a double digit lead and will win with a double digit lead.  Dick Morris outlines Why The Polls Under State Romney Vote.

The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

And then later today… 'Unskewed' polls show nearly 8-point Romney lead

Republicans have complained that the establishment media’s voter-turnout models can serve a partisan purpose by presenting margins that keep discouraged Republican voters at home thinking the election is already lost.

Race beginning to look a lot like 1980? What might Ronald Reagan’s victory path mean?

Source: http://unskewedpolls.com/ LV = Likely Voters, RV=Registered Voters, MoE=Margin of Error

But the war for America needs to be at the forefront for all concerned Americans for the next 40-days… no matter what the polls show!

The Founding Fathers warned us that the only way we could keep our republic was to remain engaged and to do that they knew that the citizenry must be educated and must demand a free and truthful media.  We have fallen down on all three and the Obama presidency is the result of that failure.

And why are the Clintons filling in for President Obama at meetings with worldwide leaders at the UN? While Obama went on the view?  Gov. Romney is also meeting with world leaders while Obama has decided to stay out of the “political” fray during his campaign? Hello?  Yet CNN, whose coverage is so skewed that after hiding their knowledge of the Libyan Ambassadors’ Diary, will be pulled from Israeli TV by the end of the year, swooned… saying they could not wait to hear what Obama had to say before the General Assembly Meeting, even though he wouldn’t meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu or any other world leaders around his speech.

Or, Does Obama expect to lose? – See Secret retirement plans, based on internal polling, so Bill and Hillary are taking the opportunity to promote a Hillary run in 2016, even though her chances are much diminished by the evidence that it was Hillary who did not send in Marines to protect our people in Benghazi? Perhaps they are hoping to hide behind the body of lies from Benghazi that lead to Obama and his administration in general?  Good luck!

This could be one of the closest races and elections in U.S. History… and the final count will probably go waaay into the night of November 6th or even the early morning of November 7th.

What will you tell your kids and grandkids about what you were doing while America was dying if you do not stand up?  All the knowledge in the world is useless if you do not share it!!

“No people is wholly civilized where a distinction is drawn between stealing an office and stealing a purse.” …Theodore Roosevelt

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Easy Things You Can Do to Prevent Voter Fraud

The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

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IN BED WITH OBAMA: CNN Uses Heavily Weighted Polling Sample to Pretend Obama is Leading

Romney Central:

A new poll out from CNN shows Romney losing to Obama overall by 6 percentage points. That result would be fine and dandy if the breakdown of the polling sample showed an equal part of Democrats and Republicans with any number of Independents. Curiously, CNN hasn't released a breakdown of the sample they polled.

The real eye-opener here is this: although the poll shows Romney down by 6 overall, it also shows him leading among independents by a whopping 14%. Only in skewed polling results can a candidate be crushing his opponent among indies but lose overall.

Christian Heinze of GOP2012 was the first to report on the discrepancy:

But here's a very curious internal.

Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time.

And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.

There's no doubt Obama got a convention bounce, but the independent number indicates a pretty severe oversample among Democrats in this poll.

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Polls and Pols

It may seem hardly worthwhile going to the polls to vote this election year, since ACORN and the media have already decided that Barack Obama is to be the next President of the United States. Still, it may take more than voter fraud and media spin to put Senator Obama in the White House. Most public opinion polls show Obama ahead, but not usually by decisive margins, and sometimes by a difference within the margin of error. There has been a history of various polls over the years projecting bigger votes for the Democrats' presidential candidate in October than that candidate actually gets in November. Some of these polls seem like they are not trying to report facts but to create an impression. One poll has been reported as using a sample consisting of 280 Republicans and 420 Democrats. No wonder Obama leads in a poll like that. Pollsters have to protect their reputations but they can do that by playing it straight on their last poll before election day, after having created an impression earlier that a landslide for the Democratic candidate was all but a done deal. The general media bias is more blatant than usual this year. There was more media outcry about Sarah Palin's response to "gotcha" questions than to Joe Biden's talking about President Franklin D. Roosevelt going on television in 1929 after the stock market crash-- at a time when FDR was not yet president and there was no television to go on. An editor at Time magazine has admitted that there has been bias but expressed a desire in the future to be more fair to both sides. Just the fact that he expresses the issue this way shows that he still doesn't understand the real problem. The point is not to be "fair" to "both sides." The point is to be straight with the readers, who are buying the magazine to learn something about the facts of the real world, not to learn about its reporters' ideology and spin. There is another factor at work in this year's election that makes polls and predictions more unreliable than usual. That factor is race. Barack Obama's string of victories in early Democratic primaries against far better known white candidates shows that large segments of the American population have moved beyond race. It is Barack Obama and his supporters who have hyped race, after his large lead in the polls began to shrink or evaporate, as more of the facts about his checkered career came out. Almost any criticism of Obama has been equated with racism, even if there is no connection that can be seen under a microscope.

Barack Obama himself started this trend when he warned that his opponents were going to try to scare the public with various charges, including a statement, "And did I say he was black?"

McCain said no such thing. Palin said no such thing. But those who support Obama-- and this includes much of the media-- are acting as if they just know that this is the underlying message.

Congressman John Lewis has likened Senator McCain to George Wallace. Congressman John Murtha has condemned a whole section of the state of Pennsylvania as "racists" because they seem reluctant to jump on the Obama bandwagon.

Senator Harry Reid has claimed that linking Obama to deposed and disgraced Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines is racist, since they are both black-- as if the financial and political connection between the two does not exist.

Much is being made of the fact that, in past elections, some white voters who told pollsters that they are going to vote for a black candidate did not in fact do so, so that a black candidate with a lead in the polls ended up losing on election day.

This is supposed to show how much covert racism there is. It might instead show that people don't want to be considered racists by pollsters because they are leaning toward someone other than the black candidate.

In other words, the media themselves helped create the charged atmosphere in which some people give misleading answers to pollsters to avoid being stigmatized.

All in all, going into the voting booth this year is not an exercise in futility for those who don't want to be bum's rushed into voting for Obama by the media's picture of a done deal. If nothing else, genuine voters can offset some of the thousands of fictitious voters registered by ACORN.

Poll: Ohio puts John McCAin in Front 

by Thomas Sowell

Dinesh D’Souza, author of The End of Racism says, “The solutions for ending racism are obvious. If you want to get rid of racial obsession, stop talking and thinking about race so much. If you want to remove race as the basis of decision-making in America, let's eliminateAmerica's policies that make race the basis of decision-making. And if you want a party that stands for color-blindness and equal opportunity, you might consider voting for the Republicans.”

Obama and The End Of Racism

Get Out the Vote... This Race Is Not Over... But

Republicans, Conservatives and Independents 

Need To Get Out The Vote!