John McCain edges debate win, grabbing a White House lifeline
This was John McCain's strongest debate so far. He was aggressive, he got his points in and he explicitly and convincingly distanced himself from President George W. Bush. It was also the most substantive and illuminating debate of the four - Bob Schieffer did better than all the other moderators put together. The side-by-side format helped. It was good to see direct engagement.
McCain made Joe the Plumber - actually Joe Wurzelbacher - the most famous voter in America. That's good for the Arizona - it will mean there will be lots of talk about Obama wanting to "spread" - or redistribute - wealth. To a lot of Americans, that's socialism. McCain was particularly strong at the beginning - Obama closed well.
I'm not sure how well the Ayers and Acorn stuff worked though - McCain seemed to get angry and emotional while Obama kept his cool. The split screen may have worked against Obama (I watched the debate on CNN, which used split screen more often than other cable channels and networks).
On the other hand, Obama - who was often long-winded and professorial - looked a tad condescending and mocking at times. A big caveat: this may be one of those debates where the initial feeling was that McCain had done well but that could fade.
So what are the major points to take away from this?
1. If you read a transcript, McCain was the clear winner. But there were no hugely dramatic moments, no major slips by Obama (though he did promise to enforce "unfair trade" at one point), nothing to change the dynamic of this race. NAd debates are about more than transcripts - they're also visual events.
2. Best line of the night: ""Senator Obama I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run four years ago." But was it a couple of months too late?
3. Was McCain too angry? On the substance of Ayers and Acorn, he was good. But he may have alienated people with his open displays of emotion and his continued inability to hide his disdain for Obama. Perhaps 30 per cent of voters share that disdain and it will have cheered their hearts. Swing voters, however, could be a different matter. Check McCain's facial expressions out here:
4. Obama had already passed the threshold in previous debates of seeming capable and reassuring enough to be commander-in-chief. That trend continued tonight. Unfortunately for McCain, he simply doesn't seem scary enough.
5. Assuming Obama wins this election - which still looks probable after tonight - historians will record that it was the economy wot done it. But Obama's three strong debate performances - IMHO he edged the first debate, was a clear winner in the second, and very narrowly lost the third - will also be a very significant factor.
6. This is a safety first strategy by Obama at this stage and who can blame him? I'm not sure he even went out to "win" this debate - he just wanted to avoid any big mistakes.
7. Some of the focus groups and snap polls indicate voters were turned off by McCain's attacks. But while people usually bemoan attack politics, they are affected and they often worked. Some of McCain's points will have hit home. More generally, I don't really trust the snap polls or debte focus groups.
8. Many may well disagree but it seems to me that Obama said NOTHING about his real connections to Bill Ayers. I find it surprising he's managed to get away for so long with being so vague about this character. I'm not suggesting it would have been an election winner but if McCain had raised it weeks or months ago by this time he would have been pressing home the final attack rather than firing the opening shots.
9. There were clear contrasts between the two candidates on economic policy, offering voters a real choice. McCain had a degree of coherence we haven't seen before. But again - too late? It's incredible how dominant the economy has become. Remember what this election looked like it might turn on? Iraq and immigration.
10. Obama is smooth and unruffled. He never loses his cool. McCain seems constantly teetering on the edge of really losing it. Some people - including McCain - are infuriated by Obama's mien and view it as arrogant, elitist etc. But I sense voters want calm, reasoned and methodical this time. Eight years of Bush deciding from the gut and shooting from the hip have ensured that.
11. McCain missed a big chance to raise what I think will be a major worry for some voters - the chance that Democrats will win the White House and both houses of Congress, possibly with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Americans prefer divided government.
So, a wafer-thin win on the night for McCain. But will it make a difference to the result or is it too little too late? It feels like the latter... but never count John McCain out! And perhaps the American people might actually start checking their voting records and taking a true look at Obama, in which case McCain would absolutely win!!
Posted By: Toby Harnden at Oct 16, 2008
“So, a wafer-thin win on the night for McCain, on debate number 3. But will it make a difference to the result or is it too little too late? It feels like the latter; but never count John McCain out! And perhaps the American people might actually start checking their voting records and taking a true look at Obama, in which case McCain would absolutely win!!” …Toby Harnden, US Editor for British Paper, The Telegraph
Every Senator’s Voting Record is Open to the Public - You Just Have To Do A Little Research
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