The Reality of 2012 Voter Turnout: The White Voter

Battleground Watch:

The largest divergence among conservative and liberal polling critics this election is the debate over who will actually show up at the voting booth this November. Differences between the amounts of Democrats versus Republicans included in the poll are frequent. But embedded in each of these assumptions are questions on the racial make-up and how that varies from election to election. Democrats consistently talk about the “coalition of the ascendant” where the fastest growing segments of the population are minorities. As such they make up an ever-increasing segment of the voting population but also vote overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats. With a shrinking white population and a growing minority population Democrats argue demography as destiny and count on political majorities for the coming generation. That may be true if everything in life moves in a straight line (it doesn’t) but is that true today?

This is the bone of contention between the competing Presidential campaigns and critics of today’s polls. Democrats want to argue the steep increase in minority percentage of the voting electorate from 2008 election was a fundamental shift in the electorate whereas Republicans want to argue the steep increases were a one-off bounce. Both agree on the general direction of the trend. Neither agree how severe that trend will be in 2012. This disagreement is the basis for Democrat over-confidence and lopsided polling today in an election where the two candidates are most likely within 1-2% of one another.

What’s missing in all this analysis is who did not show up in the 2008 election: White voters. Looking back at those results, every voter turnout rate by race (relative to eligible population) was up versus 2004 except the white vote according to Pew Research (April 30, 2009). Blacks were up +4.9%, Hispanics were up +2.7%, Asians were up +2.4%. But the percentage of White voters who showed up at the polls relative to who was eligible dropped -1.1% (Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, May 2010). This has nothing to do with minorities making up more or less of the electorate. This is simply saying from 2004 to 2008 White voter registration (which actually dropped 104k) and actual turnout of White voters (which increased 500k) did not keep up with voting age White population increases.

Within this drop of White voter turnout, over 3x as many men as women comprised those voters staying home in the election. This happened for any number of reasons ranging from a disinterested national party to a disorganized Presidential campaign to a demoralized voting block–all are true. But the bottom line is one of the advantages Barack Obama enjoyed in 2008 was that a meaningful percentage of white voters simply stayed home in 2008. Side note: for anyone who wants to pin the depressed turnout on racism, wouldn’t the opposite have occurred in 2008 if racism really were a motivating factor in the white turnout?

Where this trips up the Obama campaign.

In 2008 Democrats achieved incredible levels of voter registration and turnout of this “coalition of the ascendent” such that Blacks, Hispanics and Asians made up 24% of the voting electorate — all historic highs. Bolstering the appearance of Democrat advantage are countless media stories reporting on Mitt Romney’s struggle appealing to minority groups. Little attention is paid to Barack Obama’s (and Democrat candidates before him) difficulty appealing to White voters who made up 74% of the electorate. Such historic minority levels for the composition of the electorate are predicated on a demoralized and ineligible (meaning unregistered) white population much like in 2008, as demonstrated above.

If John McCain achieved a white voter turnout rate equal to George Bush in 2004, that would have meant 1.7 million more White votes. While all of these votes would not have gone to McCain (nor were they all in battleground states), a super-majority of these voters likely would have voted Republican considering the make-up of the missing voter (white male — Obama’s worst demographic) and the motivated nature of the Obama voter in 2008 (i.e. if they were Obama supporters, only a scant few percent would have stayed home). Those missing votes would have been more than enough to flip the results in any of North Carolina (14k), Indiana (28.5k,), Nevada (121k), Iowa (146k), Colorado (195k), Virginia (234k), Florida (237k) or Ohio (260k) where Obama’s victory margin (in parentheses) is based on a 43% vote share of a decreased turnout.

Today Barack Obama receives approximately 40% of the White vote in polls but often dips below this level especially when polls fail to massively over-sample Democrats. The President is also facing an increasingly enthusiastic bloc of White voters motivated to vote against him (this shows up in every survey) based on his poor record in office. Additionally, Republicans have aggressively targeted the above mentioned states with voter registration efforts reversing or seriously muting the registration advantage Obama enjoyed in 2008. Net gains for Republicans voter registrations in Nevada (53k), Iowa (140k), Colorado (91k) and Florida (240k) all speak to a very different and Republican electorate in those states. On top of registration, voter contacts from the Romney campaign surpassed 26 million eligible voters across the battleground states to date. This is as much as 10-15x as much as the McCain 2008 campaign. This does not dismiss the aggressive and active Obama re-election effort but it simply points out that compared to 2008 he is no longer battling an unarmed opponent.

All of this is to say when David Axelrod or similar Obama campaign talking heads argue aggressively for polls with a racial composition at meaningfully greater minority levels than the 2008 historic turnout, there is another side of that coin and it works heavily against the turnout models of both the Obama campaign and of the vast majority of polls being published today.

Want things to change? Help educate people and help get out the conservative, independent, evangelical and white vote!! Many are not registered.

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ED Rush View on the Martin Case "When & Why Now"

by Erik Rush Email | Archive -  WND

Author of Negrophilia: From Slave Block to Pedestal - America's Racial Obsession

A commie president and the Trayvon tragedy

This past weekend I was asked by my friend and Fox News commentator T.J. McCormack to visit with him on his radio show and comment on a column he’d written concerning the Trayvon Martin shooting. Pretty much anyone with a forum (whether television, radio, online publications or social media) who’s commented on this issue has taken heat either from the right or the left. In this case, it was both.

T.J.’s take on the shooting, subsequent media feeding frenzy and rash of activism was a little different than most being bandied about. It was a sincere appeal for prominent parties on both sides of the issue to unite amicably in light of the incident’s grave potential repercussions.

“Coming together” for the good of the nation would certainly hold the moral high ground, but I opined that this was probably about as likely as my becoming a volunteer at the local Obama campaign office.

There are simply too many agendas in play to hope for such unity to manifest. The radicals are driving the discussion and the response, which in this case is analogous to the inmates running the asylum. Race-baiting career activists are fomenting anger and tension with the full complicity of the establishment press. The former seek continuing relevance and ongoing financial support, while the latter seeks ratings. Both are ideologically aligned with – or rather, part of – the radical element.

And the politicos? Well, Democratic leaders are obviously aligned with the radical element, particularly if they’re part of this administration, and the remainder are close enough. Republican leaders will be in trouble no matter what they do. If they remain silent, they’ll be called cowards; if they speak out and don’t call for George Zimmerman’s boiled severed head, they’ll be called racists. Most would rather have the coward label than the racist one, so have said nothing. Conservative commentators who weigh in are dismissed as party to perceived racist policies, and any reasonable liberal voices are being drowned out by the din of the far-left propaganda machine.

How do we go from a moment to a movement that creates fundamental change? If it’s a moment, we go home. If it’s a movement, we go to war.

– Rev. Jesse Jackson, March 12, 2012

It may surprise some people when I say that the hypocrisy and irresponsible, dangerous rhetoric of career civil-rights activists are hardly the issue here. Neither is the alacrity with which the news media pounce on stories like this while ignoring the 2007 Tennessee gang-rape and mutilation slaying of a white couple by four black men, or the recent attempted immolation of a white Kansas City youth by a gang of black kids. The issue isn’t black Americans’ inability to discern that their political allies have accounted for exponentially more deaths of blacks via their policies than all the confirmed race-related killings of blacks over the last 40 years.

The issues upon which we should focus are the when and the why this is occurring in the way it is occurring. We may never know the truth of what happened between Trayvon Martin and George Zimmerman in the moments before the shooting, but if we examine the when and the why of its aftermath, the truth becomes eerily apparent.

When President Obama commented on the Martin shooting, some contended that he had “acted stupidly” in commenting on something he should have stayed out of for reasons of due process and presidential decorum. I contend that like nearly everything he does, it was quite calculated. While specious as well as gratuitous, Obama stating that if he had a son, “he’d look like Trayvon” was nevertheless calculated to engender an emotional response. The reason it was calculated to engender an emotional response is the same reason many things are transpiring across the political landscape, all at the same approximate time.

That’s the when part … which is, quite clearly, right now.

The things to which I refer that are transpiring concurrently include the aftereffects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, violence on our border with Mexico, the Occupy movement, assaults on religious freedom and free speech by the administration and activists, and the implausible organization and mobilization of fringe malcontents into politically active groups. These developments can all be traced (as I’ve recently indicated) to Obama’s political roots, which are borne out by his policies, his associations and his affinity for such doctrines as Black Liberation Theology and Critical Race Theory.

The specter of a communist takeover of the U.S. still remains singularly preposterous to millions of Americans who would quickly come to arms if they actually believed it a possibility. I’m not entirely certain how President Obama proposes to suppress those who would rise up against him were his intentions to become widely apparent, but I believe that part of the plan is to factionalize us (such as is occurring over the Martin case and Occupy Wall Street). I believe he’s also counting on deepening economic adversity to heighten Americans’ collective stress. Another element might be to provoke concerned patriots into action that he could point to as a threat to domestic tranquility, thereby convincing a preponderance of Americans to accept fundamental compromises to their civil liberties.

In such a case, Obama could then employ some of the more traditional Marxist tactics, such as mass executions, as cohorts of his friend Bill Ayers once advocated. It’s already apparent that certain factions would be more than happy to aid him in that effort. Quite a few conservatives have pointed to the timeliness of Obama’s executive order of March 16 (on “National Defense Resources Preparedness”) as an overture to just such action. Called a mere “tweak” of the amended Defense Production Act of 1950, many have asked why the president saw a necessity to “tweak” a law with provisions that essentially give exclusive and unlimited power to the Executive Branch in the event of a national emergency, which would necessarily be declared by the president himself.

To those whose assessment of individuals is not predicated upon what comes out of their mouths and the mouths of their surrogates, the truth is clear: President Obama is a communist, laboring with like-minded comrades to actualize a long-embraced communist agenda – and their end game is fast approaching.

That is the why of it.

by Erik Rush -   a columnist and author of sociopolitical fare. His latest book is "Negrophilia: From Slave Block to Pedestal - America's Racial Obsession” In 2007, he was the first to give national attention to the story of Sen. Barack Obama's ties to militant Chicago preacher Rev. Jeremiah Wright, initiating a media feeding frenzy. Erik has appeared on Fox News' "Hannity and Colmes," CNN, and is a veteran of numerous radio appearances. More <- <-  Email | Archive

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Black Lawmakers Sue to Dissolve Cities that Are Too ‘White’

April 1, 2011

What happened to the post-racial president and era that so many American’s thought they were voting for?

The Georgia Legislative Black Caucus filed a lawsuit Monday against the state of Georgia seeking to dissolve the city charters of Dunwoody, Sandy Springs, Johns Creek, Milton and Chattahoochee Hills. Further, the lawmakers, joined by civil rights leader the Rev. Joseph Lowery, aim to dash any hopes of a Milton County.

The lawsuit, filed in a North Georgia U.S. District Court Monday, claims that the state circumvented the normal legislative process and set aside its own criteria when creating the “super-majority white ” cities within Fulton and DeKalb counties. The result, it argues, is to dilute minority votes in those areas, violating the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments to the Constitution.

Rep. Lynne Riley, R-Johns Creek, called the lawsuit “frivolous” and “disrespectful to the citizens of these cities who are most satisfied with their government.”

Riley was active in creating Sandy Springs and the subsequent cities while serving as a Fulton County commissioner.

“These jurisdictions were based on geography and nothing else,” she said. “We haven’t seen any evidence of any disadvantage based on the creation of new cities. We’ve watched the Fulton County budget continue to grow … to say there was damage done by this creation, there are no facts to support that, and I would reject it.”

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Racism has been a tool of the left to divide us and then control the conversation.  Why are we still buying into it??  The GOP (Republicans) are the party of Lincoln who freed the slaves.  The civil rights legislation signed by Kennedy/Johnson originated with President Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower and Martin Luther King Jr. preached love not hate and unity, fairness and freedom for everyone, not division.  It is a dream and a legacy that has been hijacked by the race-baiters on the left, even some that walked with him. (One must ask why King’s niece, Alveda King, spoke at Glenn Beck’s 8.28 Event on the anniversary of his I Have a Dream Speech if the right is so bad or hateful!)  Oh and the Klan… most were Southern Democrats.  How long is white America going to be played and how long is right America going to be blamed for the sins of the left.

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