Former Mass. governor gets 39% to Sarah Palin's 16% support - Romney-Palin ticket doesn’t sound bad either!
A new poll from the NH Journal has former Massachusets Gov. Mitt Romney dominating the field of possible 2012 Republican presidential candidates. Romney secured 39 percent support in the poll, with no other challenger even breaking the 20-percent mark.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin gains the second highest percentage at 16, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 10 percent. The rest of the potential candidates are even further behind, gaining only single-digit support: eight percent for Newt Gingrich, seven percent for Texas Rep. Ron Paul, four percent for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, three percent for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and one percent for Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.
The poll sampled both Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in the state. Unlike other early presidential state Iowa, where only registered Republicans can take part in the caucus, the New Hampshire primary is open to both those registered with the party and independents. That system could play an outsized role in the 2012 primary since there will (presumably) not be a competitive primary on the Democratic ballot, freeing the majority of independents to take part on the Republican side.
Romney finished second to Sen. John McCain in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, and he served as governor for a bordering state, so his first-place finish in the poll is not too surprising. Still, the gigantic margin between the former Massachusetts governor and any other candidate indicates that he starts the campaign as the heavy favorite to win the Granite State.NHJ New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results
Romney flexes muscle in first NH Primary poll with Palin second and others lag behind
By AMELIA CHASSE - January 6, 2011
Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in New Hampshire in the early stages of the race for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, according to a new survey commissioned by NH Journal and conducted by Magellan Strategies. The survey is the first statewide survey of Granite State Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in 2011.
Romney leads former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin by 23 points, with Romney earning 39% and Palin earning 16%. Mike Huckabee (10%), Newt Gingrich (8%), Texas Congressman Ron Paul (7%), former MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (4%), Rick Santorum (3%) and MS Gov. Haley Barbour (1%) all trail significantly behind. Romney finished second to Sen. John McCain in the 2008 New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary.
None of the candidates in the survey have publicly announced their candidacy for president but all have said they are seriously considering a bid.
Despite her ballot position, Palin is very popular with Republican voters. 59% view her favorably while 31% have an unfavorable view of her. More Independents (50%) have a favorable view of her than and unfavorable view (41%). This data reflects Independent voters who say they are likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary.
Romney appears popular with all subgroups of the Republican electorate. Large percentages of seniors (76%), social conservatives (76%) and fiscal conservatives (76%) hold favorable views of him. Romney has struggled with social issues, such as abortion, in the past and many conservative pundits have speculated that his health care plan in Massachusetts could cause problems for him on the right. Nevertheless, Granite State Republicans are very comfortable with him as the presidential campaign season officially opens.
Huckbee and Pawlenty are also viewed substantially more favorably than not. Gingrich, Santorum and Barbour have relatively higher unfavorable ratings.
In a memo released about the survey, Magellan pollster David Flaherty stated, “This survey is a very early measurement of the potential 2012 Republican Presidential primary field. Mitt Romney’s strength is not surprising considering his close second place finish to John McCain in 2008 and his regional advantage of being a former border state Governor. Many political observers have commented on the “late” start of the 2012 Presidential primary campaign in comparison to the 2008 Presidential primary. We agree with this observation, and view the survey results as an “uninformed” snapshot of likely New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary voter opinion.”
The survey was conducted on Tuesday, January 4th from 6:00 to 8:00pm using automated telephone calls to a sample of 1,451 voters randomly drawn from a New Hampshire voter file among households containing at least one registered Republican or independent voter. Independent voters were screened for their intention to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The response data was weighted to reflect past Republican primary voting demographics from the 2008 Republican Presidential primary election. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 2.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Note: NH Journal editorial board member Patrick Hynes is a consultant to Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s PAC.
Romney flexes Muscle in First NH Primary Poll with Paling Second and Other Lag Behind
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