If the Republican Presidential race were a poker game, you could say that Palin, the underdog has remained in late position long enough to see the full ring, to expose the live ones. She’s learned their tells, and she’s seen some bust, but now it’s time for her to go all in with what looks to be a royal flush.
If you’re not a poker player, you may need a poker dictionary to decipher my analogy. And “they” think she doesn’t know how the game of politics is played. The good old boys just never realized that she wasn’t playing by their rules.
If, or rather when, Sarah Palin announces her candidacy for President; Republican polls will likely shift in her favor. There are droves of Republicans and Independents who like Sarah Palin and what she stands for. But if there is one common thread you will hear as a negative, it is “but I don’t think she can win.” Yet she continues to pack in larger crowds than declared presidential candidates. The media loves to hate her, and to her credit, she’s probably the most highly-vetted potential candidate the country has ever seen.
It’s looking more and more these days as if Sarah Palin will announce her run for the White House in short order. If you keep up with Palin’s history, you may come to the conclusion that there is no accident in her decision to go to Iowa September 3rd for what many believe will be her big announcement. September 3, 2011 is three years, to the day, that Sarah Palin accepted the nomination for Vice President and gave her famously rousing speech during the Republican National Convention. In the last few days, even those in the media have noted that it appears that Sarah Palin will announce in the early weeks of September.
Palin herself has even alluded to as much August 18th when she said,
“…still looking for that candidate whom I can put my heart and soul behind to support. If I don’t see that person here in short order, I would be willing to put my name forward in the name of service.”
The pundits and commentators are even weighing in:
“She’s out with a new video that looks an awful lot like a campaign commercial,” said Carl Cameron on August 19, 2011.
Dick Morris tweeted August 19, 2011, “It looks like Sarah Palin will announce on Sept. 3 in Iowa.”
“[Palin] has a schedule next week that looks like that of a candidate, not a celebrity…This is her last chance, she either gets in or gets out. I think she gets in,” Karl Rove said August 20, 2011.
I tend to agree with Dick in this instance. To see why, just take a look at her newest video which many are calling her first campaign commercial.
For those who like to look at numbers, then look no further than a Rasmussen Report released August 16, 2011.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, taken Monday night [August 15, 2011], finds Perry with 29% support. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, earns 18% of the vote, while Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday, picks up 13%.
Palin was not an option in the poll, but Perry and Bachmann were and both share a base support of the TEA Party which heavily support Sarah Palin. Without Palin as a choice, the majority either went with Perry or Bachmann, unless you consider the 16 percent undecided voters. But with a Sarah Palin announcement, things change dramatically. Although Perry will capture a little more of the establishment crowd than Bachmann, you can count on a fairly equitable split of both candidates’ supporters when Palin enters the ring. It’s reasonable to assume that, given the prospect of a Palin candidacy, Palin will capture about 40 percent of Perry’s supporters and roughly half of Bachmann’s.
If you do the math, not counting support Candidate Palin might take from Cain, Paul, Santorum and the others, the result of a Palin announcement, fresh out of the gate, looks like this:
Romney 18%
Palin 17%
Perry 17%
Bachmann 8%
Throw in the undecided voter who will likely swing toward Palin, given the fact that they already had the opportunity to choose one of the other candidates, and didn’t; it looks even more promising for Palin. If this particular scenario plays out, then the pendulum swings toward Palin in the lead when given the Mama Grizzly option. And if you consider who Sarah Palin’s strongest base is, the TEA Party, a newly released Rasmussen poll indicates that they will play a very large role in selecting the GOP nominee, in that 58% of primary voters think the TEA Party will help the republicans in 2012.
As icing on the cake, here is another little gem for you. The poll also gives a little more insight into the heart and soul of today’s voter. That said; let’s get back to that earlier mention of the one negative common thread I’ve heard uttered regarding a potential Sarah Palin run: “I like her but I don’t think she can win.” Here is what the poll reveals:
72% of likely Republican voters say when casting their primary vote, they favor a candidate who shares their views over one who has a better chance of winning.
That turns the notion of people agreeing with Sarah Palin, but “don’t think she can win” from a negative, into a potential strength. They are going to vote for her regardless, thus, breaking the mold of the typical voter. With that in mind, you can throw the idea that people will be voting for the perceived winning candidate right out the window. And, if you think about it, doing so also changes who the perceived ultimate winner is.
When you add it all up, and the dust settles to the ground, the poll numbers support a Palin decision to run. And don’t lose sight in the fact that the September 3rd date is highly significant in Palin’s life and to her supporters.
Like thousands of other Palin supporters from around the country, I’m joining in for the ultimate road trip from Dallas, TX., thanks to Jelayne Sessler and Del Parker of Organize4Palin. We had originally planned to ride in a charter bus, wrapped with “Texas is Palin Country,” of course, to the Restoring America TEA party in Waukee, IA. Since that time, reports have circulated that event organizers have had to move the event to a different area due to parking logistics. The TEA party, and hopefully Sarah Palin’s candidacy announcement, will now be held at National Balloon Classic Field in Indianola, IA.
I like poker, and my money is on Palin going all in. If she announces September 3rd in Indianola, IA, I’ll be there.
Oh, and you can bet my blog, Facebook and twitter accounts will be lit up and churning along the way bringing you the play-by-play.
By Natoli Nichols
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